养老保险制度城乡比较实证分析:差异性、稳定性及趋同性  

Comparative Empirical Analysis of China's Urban and Rural Pension System:Difference,Stability and Convergence

作　　者：许莉[1] 万春[2] XU Li;WAN Chun(School of Finance,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China;Economy School,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学财政金融学院,江西南昌330022 [2]江西财经大学经济学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2018年第9期51-57,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：江西省社会科学规划项目<基于分层需求的农村社会养老服务供给问题研究>(17YJ08);江西省社会科学规划项目<养老保险制度城乡统筹--基于江西新型城镇化过程中农业转移人口市民化的视角>(14YJ14);江西省普通本科高校中青年教师发展计划访问学者专项资助项目(赣教办函[2016]109号);江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目<新型城镇化背景下江西农村"市民化"群体的养老保险制度可持续发展研究>(JJ1443)

摘　　要：养老保险制度是中国经济社会的重要保障,其城乡差异阻碍了城镇化进程。不同于通常研究的定性描述,以江西省为样本,对养老保险制度城镇子系统、农村子系统进行比较实证分析。由多元线性回归结果看,两个子系统存在显著差异性;邹参数检验表明,两个子系统构成的整体系统具有稳定性;由Logit模型结果看,城乡整体系统具有向城镇子系统发展的趋同性。这可为政府推进养老保险制度城乡整合提供有价值的借鉴。Pension system is an important guarantee for China's economy and society.But huge difference between urban and rural pension subsystems hinders the urbanization process.Differing from current studies'qualitative description,this paper,taking Jiangxi province as a sample,makes comparative empirical analysis of urban pension subsystem and rural pension subsystem.By results of multiple linear regression,significant difference exists in the two subsystems.Form Chow test for parameter stability,the integrated system consisting of urban and rural subsystems has stability.According to Logit model,the integrated system has convergence of going toward urban subsystem.The conclusions can provide valuable reference for China’s government to promote the integration of urban and rural pension subsystems.

关 键 词：养老保险制度 城乡比较 差异性 稳定性 趋同性 

分 类 号：F842.0[经济管理—保险]