铁路客运专线运营初期运量预测方法研究  

Traffic Volume Prediction Method of Railway Passenger Dedicated Line at Initial Operation Stage

作　　者：钟异莹 陈坚[1,2] 邵毅明[1,2] ZHONG Yiying;CHEN Jian;SHAO Yiming(School of Traffic and Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,P.R.China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Traffic System&Safety in Mountain Cities,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆交通大学山地城市交通系统与安全重庆市重点实验室,重庆400074

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第9期107-112,共6页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划培育项目(2015PY36);国家自然科学基金项目(51308569);重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究重点项目(14SKG03);重庆市交通运输工程重点实验室开放项目(2016CQJY002);重庆市研究生科研创新基金(CYB17128)

摘　　要：为解决铁路客运专线建成初期客流形成不稳定的问题,充分考虑受运输条件限制的潜在需求,基于运输方式的经济性和运输阻抗,构建多元Logit模型预测通道内转移客流量,通过对比客运专线开通前后客运服务提升率对诱增客运量进行预测。以新建成的成绵乐客运专线为例,分别对其趋势客运量、转移客运量、诱增客运量运营初期预测,得到2017年和2020年通道总客运量,为铁路客运专线系统预测提供一种新思路。In order to solve the problem of passenger flow instability in the early stage of railway passenger dedicated line,taking full account of the potential demand under transport restrictions,a multivariate Logit model was constructed to forecast the traffic flow in the channel based on the economy and transport impedance of transportation modes.Meanwhile,the induced passenger volume was forecasted through the comparison of passenger service promotion rate before and after the operation of passenger dedicated line.Then taking the newly built Chengdu-Mianyang-Leshan passenger dedicated line as an example,the total passenger traffic volume of the channel in 2017 and 2020 was obtained by forecasting the trend passenger volume,the transfer passenger volume and the induced passenger volume respectively at initial operation stage.The above study provides a new idea for forecasting the system of railway passenger dedicated line.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 客运量预测 弹性系数 转移客运量 多元LOGIT模型 诱增客运量 

分 类 号：U448.22[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]