基于GIS的全国山洪灾害风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrents Disaster in China Based on GIS

作　　者：任洪玉[1,2] 杜俊 丁文峰[1,2] 张平仓 Ren Hongyu;Du Jun;Ding Wenfeng;Zhang Pingcang(Yangtze River Academy of Sciences,Yangtze River Water Conservancy Commission,Wuhan 430010, China;Engineering Research Center for Mountain Torrent Geological Disaster Prevention and Control, Ministry of Water Conservancy,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会长江科学院,湖北武汉430010 [2]水利部山洪地质灾害防治工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《灾害学》2018年第4期86-92,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助(2017YFC1502506);国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题(2012BAK10B04);全国山洪灾害防治项目实施方案(2013-2015年)

摘　　要：针对我国山洪灾害空间分布特点,基于自然灾害风险理论,确定全国山洪灾害风险评估模型。在大尺度山洪灾害危险评估比较研究的基础上,从可能引起山洪灾害发生的外界触发因子和可能遭受潜在损失的承灾体两个角度出发,选取山洪灾害风险评估指标构建指标体系。采用主成分分析法提取危险性指标主成分,层次分析法确定各指标权重,在GIS技术支持下,制作各因子指标分布图,开展全国山洪灾害危险性及易损性定量分析,完成全国山洪灾害风险定量评估并得到风险分区图。最后将风险评估结果与全国山洪灾害防治类型区进行比较,结果表明,山洪灾害风险分区与防治类型区吻合较好,高风险区基本分布在我国的山洪灾害重点防治区,未来山洪灾害防控重点可从影响山洪灾害风险程度的危险性因子和易损性因子入手。According to the spatial distribution characteristics of mountain torrent disasters in China,the risk assessment model of mountain torrent disasters in China was established based on natural disaster risk theory.Based on the comparative study of large-scale mountain torrent disaster risk assessment,the risk assessment index system of mountain torrent disaster is selected from the two aspects of external trigger factors which may cause the occurrence of mountain torrent disaster and disaster-bearing bodies which may suffer potential losses.Principal component analysis is used to extract the principal component of the risk index,AHP is used to determine the weight of each index.With the support of GIS,the distribution map of each factor index is made,and the quantitative analysis of the risk and vulnerability of mountain torrents in China is carried out.Finally,the results of risk assessment are compared with those of mountain torrent disaster prevention and control zones in China.The results show that the risk zoning of mountain torrent disaster is in good agreement with that of control zones.The high risk zones are basically distributed in the key mountain torrent disaster prevention and control zones in China.The future focus of mountain torrent disaster prevention and control can be attributed to the risk factors affecting the risk degree of mountain torrent disaster.Children and vulnerability factors.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 风险评估 GIS技术 全国 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程]