湖北省暴雨人口暴露时空特征与贡献率研究  

Spatial Temporal Characteristics and Contribution Rate of Rainstorm Population Exposure in Hubei

作　　者：韩钦梅 吕建军[3] 史培军[1,2,4] HAN Qinmei;LU Jianjun;SHI Peijun(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,MOC-MOE,Beijing 100875, China;Faculty of Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Faculty of Geographical Science of Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)信息工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [4]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2018年第4期191-196,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602404);国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51425903)

摘　　要：基于1986-2015年气象站点降水日值数据,以中国气象局颁布的降水强度等级划分标准为依据,分别计算了湖北省1986-1995年、1996-2005年、2006-2015年的年暴雨雨强和年代暴雨雨强,采用反距离插值法对年代暴雨雨强数据进行插值,分析其暴雨时空变化;利用1990年、2000年和2010年人口网格数据与年代暴雨雨强数据,计算了湖北省分年代暴雨人口暴露总量,并分析了其暴雨人口暴露变化的贡献因子。结果表明:湖北省暴雨雨强为先增加后减少、暴雨分布东部多西部少、高值区集中在东北部;湖北省人口总量增长缓慢,且东南多西北少,呈现人口继续向东南地区迁移的趋势;湖北省暴雨人口暴露量先增多后减少,1990年、2000年和2010年分别为2 493.29万人、2 844.73万人、2 738.20万人,占当年总人口的比例分别为48.5%、49.0%、48.7%;其变化的主要贡献因子是人口,2000s暴雨影响占7%,人口影响占92%,联合影响占1%;2010s:暴雨影响占15%,人口影响占87%,联合影响占-2%。Based on the daily precipitation data of meteorological stations from 1986 to 2015 and the precipitation intensity grading standard issued by China Meteorological Administration,the annual and decadal rainstorm intensities in 1986-1995,1996-2005 and 2006-2015 in Hubei Province were calculated respectively.The inverse distance weighted interpolation method was used to interpolate the annual and decadal rainstorm intensities.The spatial and temporal variations of the rainstorm were analyzed,and the total exposure amount of the rainstorm population in Hubei Province was calculated by using the population grid data in 1990,2000 and 2010,and the contribution factors of the population exposure to the rainstorm were analyzed.The results show that the rainstorm intensity in Hubei Province first increases and then decreases,the rainstorm distribution in the east is more than in the west,and the high value areas are concentrated in the northeast;the population growth in Hubei Province is slow,and the southeast is more than in the northwest,showing a trend of population migration to the southeast;the exposure of the rainstorm population in Hubei Province first increases and then decreases,which are 24.933 million(1900s),28.447 million(2005s),27.382 million(2010s)accounted for 48.5%,49.0%and 48.7%of the total population,respectively;the main contributing factors to the change were population,in 2000s,7%of which were affected by the rainstorm.92%by the population,and 1%by the combined impact;in 2010s,15%by the rainstorm,87%by the population,and-2%by the combined impact.

关 键 词：暴雨 暴露 年代际变化 贡献率 湖北省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P954[天文地球—自然地理学]