基于情景分析的地震人员死亡快速评估  

Rapid Assessment of Seismic Fatality Based on Scenario Analysis

作　　者：张晓雪 赵晗萍[1,2,3] 王方萍 王晗 周健 ZHANG Xiaoxue;ZHAO Hanping;WANG Fangping;WANG Han;ZHOU Jian(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes And Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875,China;;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;;Faculty of Geography Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;;Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [4]中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《灾害学》2018年第4期197-203,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"灾害应急供应链中不确定与干扰下牛鞭效应风险弱化研究"(41471424)

摘　　要：震后人员死亡快速评估对地震应急响应启动十分重要。基于震级、烈度和发震时间三个影响地震人员死亡的主要因素,构建三级地震应急基础情景;考虑地震人员死亡评估过程的不确定性,以我国1970-2015年183次破坏性地震为样本,运用信息扩散理论估算各地震应急基础情景下人员死亡率期望值及死亡率区间概率值,基于地震烈度分布图与人口密度数据评估受灾人口,进而建立基于情景分析的地震人员死亡快速评估模型;在此基础之上,利用该模型对近几年发生的地震进行死亡人数及区间评估,验证模型的精度,并选取两个较为典型的模型进行精度对比,结果表明基于情景分析的地震人员死亡快速评估模型精度更高,且死亡人数区间评估形式使模型适用性更强,能够为震后应急响应启动提供理论依据。The rapid assessment of seismic fatality is very vital for earthquake emergency respond.This paper constructing a three-stage earthquake emergency basic scenario based on the magnitude,intensity and the initial time of earthquake.Firstly,183 destructive earthquakes in China from 1970 to 2015 was selected.After that,the mortality rate expectation and the probability of the mortality rate interval of earthquake in different scenarios were estimated through the information diffusion theory.During the whole process,the uncertainty was considered.Secondly,the affected population was assessed with the distribution of seismic intensity and the population density,then the rapid assessment model of seismic fatality based on scenario analysis is established.Apart from that,the earthquakes happened in recent years were selected to verify the accuracy of the model.Finally,two typical models were selected to compare the precision of the model.The result shows that the rapid assessment model of seismic fatality based on scenarios analysis has higher accuracy and better applicability.This study can provide theoretical basis for emergency response of post-earthquake.

关 键 词：地震 死亡率 快速评估 情景分析 信息扩散 不确定性 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P315.9[天文地球—地震学]