云南一次致灾暴雨过程WRF模式模拟分析  

WRF Model Simulation Analysis of a Rainstorm Process Causing Disaster in Yunnan

作　　者：张思豆 张杰 曹杰[3] ZHANG Sidou;ZHANG Jie;CAO Jie(Institute of International Rivers and ECO-Security,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China;Yunnan Meteorological Information Center,Kunming 650034,China;Department of Atmospheric Science,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学国际河流与生态安全研究院,云南昆明650500 [2]云南省气象信息中心,云南昆明650034 [3]云南大学大气科学系,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《灾害学》2018年第4期204-210,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41265001);云南省科技惠民专项(2016RA096;2014RA002)

摘　　要：采用三重嵌套网格,利用NCEP的1°×1°再分析资料以及新一代中尺度预报模式WRF模式,对2014年6月6日08:00-7日08:00川滇切变线致灾暴雨过程进行了数值模拟实验,并对结果进行诊断分析。结果表明:WRF模式可以较为客观地模拟出暴雨过程的落区和强度,较好地反映了强降水过程的实况和基本特征,模式能很好地指示出强降水发生的高湿水汽条件以及正涡度发展、强烈上升运动和下正上负垂直螺旋度结构的动力条件,模拟的上升运动位置及700 h Pa正涡度带和正垂直螺旋带亦对强降水落区有很好的指示性,另外除了模拟的切变线位置稍偏西偏南而导致暴雨区稍偏西偏南外,对高低层影响系统的走向、结构、位置和强度的模拟结果与实际结果相近,表明该模式对云南省切变线致灾暴雨系统具有较好的模拟效果。Using three nested grids,and by NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis data and a new generation mesoscale Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model,the numerical simulation experiment of the disaster rainstorm process with shear line influencing Yunnan was carried out on 6th 8:00-7th 8:00,June 2014,and the results were diagnostically analyzed.The results show that the WRF model can objectively simulate the area and intensity of the rainstorm process and can preferably reflect the fact situations and basic features of the strong precipitation process.The WRF model can primely indicate the high wet water vapor conditions of the heavy rain occurrence as well as the dynamical conditions of positive vorticity development,strong ascending motion and lower positive and upper negative vertical helicity structure.The simulation of the ascending motion position and the positive vorticity band and positive vertical helicity band on the 700 hPa has very good directions for the strong precipitation area.Otherwise besides the simulated shear line location is slightly west and south so that heavy rain area is caused slightly west and south,the simulation results of the trend,structure,location and intensity on the high and low layer weather systems are similar with the actual results,it also shows that the WRF model has good simulation effect on the shear line system of the disaster rainstorm in Yunnan Province.

关 键 词：致灾暴雨 暴雨过程 WRF模式 数值模拟 分析 云南 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]