基于IOWA算子的水上交通事故组合预测模型  

Combined prediction model of waterway traffic accidents based on IOWA operator

作　　者：王当利[1,2] 吕雪[1,2] 王雪佳[1,2] 高如江 WANG Dangli;LYU Xue;WANG Xuejia;GAO Rujiang(School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Shanghai Channel Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200120,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院,武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室,武汉430063 [3]中交上海航道勘察设计研究院有限公司,上海200120

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2018年第3期34-40,共7页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

摘　　要：为提高水上交通事故的预测精度,将引入弱化算子序列的灰色模型和支持向量回归模型的预测结果进行组合,进而构建基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型。以全国和长江某流域水上交通事故历史数据为预测样本,将组合预测模型的预测结果与其他预测模型的预测结果进行对比。结果显示:组合预测模型的预测精度更高,能更好地反映水上交通事故的发展趋势。In order to improve the prediction accuracy of waterway traffic accidents,the prediction results of the grey model based on weakening operator sequence and the support vector regression model are combined,and a combined prediction model based on the IOWA operator is constructed.Based on the historical data of waterway traffic accidents in China and a certain basin of the Yangtze River,the prediction results of the combined prediction model are compared with those of other prediction models.The results show that the combined prediction model is of higher prediction accuracy and can better reflect the development trend of waterway traffic accidents.

关 键 词：事故预测 灰色模型 支持向量机 IOWA算子 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]