经济增长与二氧化碳减排的双赢路径分析  

A study on the win-win pathway of economic growth and CO_2 emission reduction

作　　者：何建坤[1,2] 卢兰兰 王海林[1] HE Jian-kun;LU Lan-lan;WANG Hai-lin(Institute of Energy Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Modern Management Research Center,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]清华大学现代管理研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第10期9-17,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目"国际气候治理与合作机制研究"(批准号:71690243);科技部国家重点研发计划课题"世界主要国家碳减排潜力与经济代价研究"(批准号:2017YFA0605302);教育部人文社科基地重大项目"城市低碳发展的峰值目标与碳定价机制研究"(批准号:15JJD630006)

摘　　要：实现《巴黎协定》下全球减排温室气体目标,要与联合国2030年可持续发展目标(SDGs)相结合,促使各国走上"发展"和"减碳"双赢的绿色低碳发展路径。其核心指标是大幅度降低单位GDP的二氧化碳强度,也就是大幅度提升单位二氧化碳排放的经济产出效益。一方面要大力节能,提高能源转换和利用效率,同时转变生产方式和消费方式,减少终端能源需求,从而降低单位GDP的能源强度;另一方面是大力发展新能源和可再生能源,促进能源结构的低碳化,降低单位能耗的二氧化碳强度。实现控制温升不超过2℃目标,全球单位GDP的二氧化碳强度年下降率2030年前需尽快达到4%以上,但按目前趋势只有2%左右,各国都必须加大能源变革的经济转型力度。中国实现在《巴黎协定》下提出的2030年单位GDP的二氧化碳强度比2005年下降60%~65%的国家自主贡献目标,年下降率要持续维持4%以上。并将不断加大力度,在保障经济社会持续发展同时,促使二氧化碳排放早日达峰,从而为促进全球实现可持续发展与应对气候变化协调共赢的低碳发展路径发挥积极的引领作用。Achieving the objective of global greenhouse gas emission reduction under the Paris Agreement should be combined with the UN 2030 sustainable development goals so as to drive all countries to embark on a green low-carbon development pathway of a win-win‘development’and‘carbon reduction’.And the key indicator is to substantially decrease the CO 2 intensity of GDP,that is,to substantially enhance the economic output benefit of per unit CO 2 emission.The measures are twofold.One is to save energy,improve energy conversion and utilization efficiency,and meanwhile change the patterns of production and consumption and reduce final energy demand so as to decrease the energy intensity of GDP.The other is to develop new and renewable energy,promote energy structure decarbonization,and decrease the CO 2 intensity of energy consumption.To control global temperature rise below 2℃,the annual decrease rate of global CO 2 intensity of GDP need reach above 4%as soon as possible before 2030.But it could only be 2%according to the current trend.Therefore,all countries ought to enhance their ambition in economic transition and energy reform.Moreover,to decrease the CO 2 intensity of GDP by 60%~65%in 2030 compared with the 2005 level as is proposed in the Paris Agreement,China needs to maintain its annual decrease rate above 4%.In addition,China will make continuous efforts to make CO 2 emission peak earlier and in the meantime ensure sustainable economic and social development,thus playing a positive leading role in achieving a global low-carbon development pathway for a win-win situation for sustainable development and response to climate change.

关 键 词：气候变化 能源变革 低碳发展 GDP的二氧化碳强度 

分 类 号：D820[政治法律—政治学]