港口与运输方式及陆港联合选择的巢式Logit模型  

Nested Logit Model for the Joint Choice of Seaport,Inland Mode and Dry Port

作　　者：蒋晓丹 范厚明 张琰雪 陈志蔚 JIANG Xiao-dan;FAN Hou-ming;ZHANG Yan-xue;CHEN Zhi-wei(Transportation Engineering College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China;Shipping Department,Guangzhou COSCO Shipping Agency Co.,Ltd,Guangzhou 510000,China;Beilun Branch,Ningbo Port Shipping and Freight Agency Co.Ltd,Ningbo 315800,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]广州中远海运船务代理有限公司片区船务部,广州510000 [3]宁波港船务货运代理有限公司北仑分公司,浙江宁波315800

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2018年第5期32-37,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助(2017YFC0805309);辽宁省重点研发计划指导计划项目(2018401002)~~

摘　　要：为刻画托运人对港口、运输方式及陆港的联合选择行为,将港口费用、等待时间、班轮频率、货物价值、单次运量、运输成本、运输及通关时间、准班率、陆港服务作为效用变量,构建港口选择位于上层、运输方式及陆港选择位于下层的巢式Logit模型.基于辽宁部分城市集装箱托运人的RP/SP调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验.结果表明,低运量倾向选择公路运输,托运人对多式联运的运输成本、运输及通关时间比公路运输的更重视,对公路运输的准班率比多式联运的更重视,陆港服务对多式联运具有显著正向影响,巢式Logit模型比MNL模型具有更优的统计学特征.To describe the seaport,inland mode and dry port choice,this paper identifies factors including seaport cost,waiting time,ship calls,goods value,freight volume,transport cost,transit and custom clearance time,reliability and dry port service as utility variables.The nested Logit model is built,with seaport choice on the upper layer and inland mode and dry port choice on the lower layer.The data from a combined stated preference and revealed preference survey of shippers and freight forwarders in Liaoning Province is used to calibrate the parameters.The results show that low freight volume prefers road transport.Transport cost,transit and custom clearance time are more valued in intermodal transport than in road transport.Reliability is more valued in road transport than in intermodal transport.Dry port service has a significant positive effect on intermodal transport.The nested Logit model is statistically more accurate than the MNL model.

关 键 词：综合交通运输 效用变量 巢式LOGIT模型 港口与运输方式及陆港 联合选择 

分 类 号：U169.7[交通运输工程] U294