佳木斯地区1956—2010年径流量时间序列变异分析  

Time Series Analysis on Runoff in Jiamusi Area From 1956 to 2010

作　　者：曹伟征 邢贞相 李衡[2,3] 娄丹 张玉国[1] CAO Weizheng;XING Zhenxiang;LI Heng;LOU Dan;ZHANG Yuguo(Hyrological Bureau of Heilongjiang Province,Harbin 150001,China;School of Water Conservancy& Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;Key Laboratory of High Efficient Utilization of Water Resources,Ministry of Agriculture,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省水文局,哈尔滨150001 [2]东北农业大学水利与土木工程学院,哈尔滨150030 [3]东北农业大学农业部农业水资源高效利用重点实验室,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2018年第6期126-130,136,共6页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0406004);国家自然科学基金(51109036);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20112325120009);黑龙江省自然科学基金(E2015024);黑龙江省领军人才梯队后备带头人项目(500001);黑龙江省水利厅科技开发项目(201402;201404);东北农业大学"学术骨干"项目(16XG11)

摘　　要：日趋频繁的极端天气和大规模的水资源开发对区域生态环境产生严重的影响,准确获取径流量时间序列的变化特征可为水资源的合理开发和水利水电工程规划运用提供科学的决策依据。采用趋势检验法、Mann-Kendall突变分析法和小波分析对佳木斯地区1956—2010年径流量变化的趋势性、突变性和周期性特征进行了深入的研究。结果表明:近45年来,佳木斯地区各季节及全年径流量的年际总体变化趋势的倾向率各不相同,春季、夏季、秋季及全年径流量呈明显下降趋势,而冬季径流量则呈缓慢上升趋势;各季节及年径流量的时间突变点基本一致,都分别发生在1967年、1972年和1998年左右;该地区四季及年径流量的周期变化特征差异较大,22年、13年、9年和4年左右尺度波动较为明显。Obtaining the characteristics of time series of runoff can provide the references for catching the temporal characteristics and rational development of water resources and programming of water conservancy and hydropower engineering.The trend analysis method,Mann-Kendall abrupt change analysis,and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the temporal trends of runoff based on observed runoff data in the Jiamusi from 1956 to 2010.The results showed that the annual tendency of seasonal and annual runoff in Jiamusi were different,runoff decreased significantly in spring,summer,autumn,annual runoff significant reduced,and runoff rose slowly in winner;the abrupt change points of runoff were roughly consistent with each other in 1967,1972 and 1998 or so;there was obvious change trend in general with different internal variation trends,four main periods of 22 years,13 years,9 years and 4 years or so for seasonal and annual runoff series existed.

关 键 词：径流量 时间序列分析 趋势分析法 Mann-Kendall突变分析法 小波分析 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]