四川省泥石流活动与降水因子特征  

Characteristics of Debris Flow and Precipitation in Sichuan Province

作　　者：钟燕川[1,2] 郭海燕 徐金霞[2] 徐沅鑫 马振峰 ZHONG Yanchuan;GUO Haiyan;XU Jinxia;XU Yuanxin;MA Zhenfeng(Sichuan Provincial Climate Centre,Chengdu 610000,China;Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省气候中心,成都610000 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610000

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2018年第6期390-396,共7页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41275097);四川省科技支撑计划项目(15ZC0098)

摘　　要：基于四川省近2008—2015年泥石流灾情和多年降水气候资料,分析了四川省泥石流的分布和降水因子特点,利用主成分分析(PCA)和K-means聚类法,对泥石流灾害所在地区降水因子(年均降雨量、降雨日数、暴雨雨量、暴雨日数、雨季雨量、当日降雨量、前3日降雨量和前3日降水和前9日降水比值)进行了分析,得到了不同降雨类型诱发的泥石流特点和分布,探求了四川省泥石流灾害时空分布规律及其与多年气候降水特征的关系。结果表明:四川省泥石流多分布于龙门山断裂带、川西高原、攀南(攀枝花和凉山州)地区和盆周东部山区,这些地区存在有利于泥石流发生的地质、地形和物源条件和水源条件;多数泥石流事件的发生与灾害前3日降水密切相关;基于聚类结果,得到四川省泥石流类型和分布特点,对四川省对不同地区开展减灾风险管理提供了科学依据和参考。In order to reveal the characteristics of distribution of debris flow and precipitation factor in Sichuan Province in recent decades,climate data relative to debris flows during 2008-2015 and rainfall were collected.Based on precipitation factors(annual rainfall,rainfall days,rainstorms,number of rainstorms,rainy season rainfall,day rainfall,pre-3 days effective precipitation and the ratio of pre-3 day effective precipitation and pre-9 day effective precipitation),we used PCA and K-means cluster analysis to get the characteristics and distribution of debris flow under different rainfall types.The debris flow in Sichuan Province distributed in Longmenshan fault zone,western plateau of Sichuan Province,Pannan(Panzhihua and Liangshan)and eastern mountainous area.There are specific conditions such as geology,topography,source and precipitation inducing the occurrences of debris flows.Pre-3 day effective precipitation can be considered as important factor about the threshold and risk division of debris flow.The results of the characteristics and distribution of debris flow from cluster analysis can provide the references for debris flow disaster prevention and risk mitigation in Sichuan Province.

关 键 词：四川省 泥石流 时空分布 降水 K-MEANS聚类 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]