车牌额度拍卖市场管制有效性及效率改进空间  

Performance evaluation of car ownership regulation on Shanghai quota auction market and its improvement

作　　者：冯苏苇[1] 林昌 FENG Su-wei;LIN Chang(The School of Public Economics Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433 [2]福建工程学院,福州350108

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2018年第9期12-22,共11页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71871131)

摘　　要：随着我国城镇化和机动化进程加速,已有多个城市加入私车拥有权管制行列,管制政策有效性亟待科学分析和系统评估.基于管制绩效评估理论,以上海车牌额度拍卖市场为切入点,首先,通过限价之前拍卖市场关键变量近线性关系发现其具有量价齐升、正向激励特征,Hurst指数分析表明拍卖价格变化率可恢复均值、回归中位.其次,选择三种对照组,采用差中差、OLS等方法计量减缓私人汽车拥有量增速的宏观效应以及通过额度投放量稳定拍卖市场的微观效应,发现管制效果显著.进一步,根据高斯回归过程考察拍卖价格可预测性,指明提升效率、放松管制的改进方向和措施,为政策完善提供有价值参考.With the rapid urbanization and motorization,a few cities in China join the line to regulate private car ownership and the policy performance should be systematically evaluated.With some statistical learning methods like Principal Component Analysis(PCA),Hurst Index,Gaussian Process Regression(GPR)and the econometric method like Difference-in-Difference(DID)and OLS,this paper tries to discover the main characteristics of the auction market by formulating a linear equation of key variables of Shanghai license quota auction market,changing rate and prediction of the auction prices,in order to evaluate the performance of policy instruments like the released quota and the price cap.The PCA analysis shows that there is a positive bidirectional relationship and a positive incentive effect between the quota and the price in the auction market.Meanwhile Hurst Index analysis shows the changing rate of the prices will return to the mean value.It further shows with three comparative groups by DID that the auction regulation slows down the increase of private vehicles at an annual rate of around 27%~36%and the quota increment significantly makes the auction market stable by decreasing both the price volatility and the bidders’competition.Finally,with the prediction precision worsening with GPR after 2014,the improvement of the regulation such as deregulating the price cap has also been discussed to give some light on enhancing the implication of quota strategies

关 键 词：车牌额度 管制 统计学习方法 有效性 绩效评价 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学]