宁夏马铃薯主产区关键生育期气象适宜度评价  

Evaluation of meteorological suitability for key growth stage of main potato producing areas in Ningxia

作　　者：高建文 王连喜[1] 刘静[2] 吴志岐 GAO Jian-wen;WANG Lian-xi;LIU Jing;WU Zhi-qi(School of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions,China Meteorological Administration/Ningxia Key Lab of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Yinchuan 750002,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京210044 [2]中国旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室/宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,宁夏银川750002

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2018年第9期9-13,共5页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：采用宁夏西吉县马铃薯发育期观测资料,计算西吉县马铃薯各个发育期的平均积温,结合气象资料反演出宁夏其他马铃薯主产区历年马铃薯发育进程。依据这些发育期,利用世界农粮组织推荐的适宜度计算公式,计算马铃薯关键发育期平均温度、降水、日照适宜度。以这些适宜度为自变量,历年收歉年为个案标记依据,采用聚类分析方法,得出马铃薯关键发育期温度、降水、日照气象适宜度阈值,利用木桶原理得出马铃薯关键发育期综合适宜度阈值。结果显示,宁夏马铃薯主产区在播种-出苗期间,歉年、平年、丰年的综合适宜度分别为0.44、0.53、0.74;在花序形成-开花期间,歉年、平年、丰年的综合适宜度分别为0.33、0.56、0.86。用历史资料通过回代检验,准确率在65.6%~91.6%之间,可应用于马铃薯生长期评价。Using the observation data of potato growth stage in Xiji County of Ningxia,the average accumulated temperature of potato in each growth stage of Xiji County was calculated,and the meteorological data were used to reflect the potato growth process in other main potato producing areas in Ningxia.Based on these growth stages,the average temperature,precipitation and sunshine suitability of potato key growth stage were calculated using the formula of the suitability recommended by the World Agri-Food Organization.Taking these suitability as the independent variables,the annual harvest is the case marker basis,and the cluster analysis method is used to obtain the threshold value of temperature,precipitation and sunshine meteorological suitability of key growth stage of potato,and the comprehensive suitability threshold of key growth stage of potato is obtained by using the principle of wooden barrel.The conclusion is that during sowing-sproutingof main potato producing areas in Ningxia,the comprehensive suitability of the under-year is 0.44,the comprehensive suitability of the average is 0.53,and the comprehensive suitability of the harvest is 0.74.During inflorescence formation-flowering,the comprehensive suitability of the under-year is 0.33.The comprehensive suitability of the average is 0.56,and the comprehensive suitability of the harvest is 0.86.With the historical data back to the test,the accuracy rate is between 65.6%and 91.6%,which can be applied in the potato growth evaluation business.

关 键 词：马铃薯 发育期推算 关键生育期 气象适宜度 评价指标 

分 类 号：S532[农业科学—作物学] P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]