基于类推和灰色模型的软件阶段成本预测  

Software Stage Effort Prediction Based on Analogy and Grey Model

作　　者：王勇[1] 李逸 王丽丽 朱晓燕[2] WANG Yong;LI Yi;WANG Li-li;ZHU Xiao-yan(School of Information Science and Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;School of Electronics and Information Engineering,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学信息科学与工程学院,青岛266100 [2]西安交通大学电子与信息工程学院,西安710049

出　　处：《计算机科学》2018年第B11期480-487,共8页Computer Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61170312;61402355;61502378);软件工程国家重点实验室(SKLSE2012-09-14);中央高校基本科研基金(XJJ2014050)资助

摘　　要：准确预测软件成本是软件工程领域最具挑战性的任务之一。软件开发固有的不确定性和风险性,使得仅仅在项目早期预测总成本是不够的,还需要在开发过程中持续预测各个阶段的成本,并根据变化趋势重新分配资源,以确保项目在规定的时间和预算内完成。由此,提出一种基于类推和灰色模型的软件阶段成本预测方法——AGSE(Analogy&Grey Model Based Software Stage Effort Estimation)。该杂交方法通过合并两种方法的预测值得到最终的预测结果,避免了单独使用其中一种方法预测时存在的局限性。在真实的软件项目数据集上的实验结果表明,AGSE的预测精度优于类推方法、GM(1,1)模型、GV方法、卡尔曼滤波和线性回归,显示出较大的潜力。Accurate software effort prediction is one of the most challenging tasks in the software engineering domain.Due to the inherent uncertainty and risk of software development process,it is insufficient to predict the whole effort just at the early stage of the project.In contrast,it is important to predict the effort of each stage during the software development process.This enables the managers to reallocate resources according to the variation of the project development and ensures the project to be completed with the prescribed schedule and under the budget.Therefore,this paper presented a new method for software physical time stage-effort prediction based on both analogy method and grey mo-del.The proposed hybrid method obtains prediction results by combining the values predicted by both analogy and grey model.At the same time,this method can avoid the limitations of using either of them.The experimental results on real world software engineering dataset indicate that the prediction accuracy obtained by the proposed method is better than that obtained by analogy method,GM(1,1)model,GV,Kalman filter and linear regression,showing great potential.

关 键 词：类推 灰色模型 阶段成本预测 软件项目管理 

分 类 号：TP311[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]