网购影响下的城市交通碳排放测算方法研究  

Research on the Calculation Method of Urban Transport Carbon Emission in the Influence of Online Shopping

作　　者：胡鹏飞[1] 赵淑芝[1] 刘华胜[1] 梁世栋 王东 HU Pengfei;ZHAO Shuzhi;LIU Huasheng;LIANG Shidong;WANG Dong(Transportation College,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin 130022,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学交通学院,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《公路工程》2018年第6期97-101,227,共6页Highway Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51608224)

摘　　要：主要探讨网络购物的发展对城市客运交通碳排放的具体影响。首先采用马尔科夫链法预测无网购影响下居民购物出行分担结构;之后构建以出行者特征和购物方式服务水平为特征变量的巢式Logit模型,预测网购影响下居民出行分担结构;紧接着建立基于IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)自下而上法的碳排放测算模型。最后以J市居民出行数据为基础,进行模型参数估计和测算结果分析。结果表明,网络购物的发展对于城市交通,特别是机动车购物出行碳排放有较明显的减排作用。This paper focuses on the influence of online shopping on the carbon emission from urban passenger transport.First,use Markov chain method to predict the traffic composition of residents shopping in the absence of online shopping.Second,construct the nested logit model to predict the traffic composition in the presence of online shopping,with shopper characteristics and shopping service level as the characteristic variables.Then,establish the carbon calculation model based on bottom-up IPCC.Finally,the paper takes J city as the example to calibrate the model parameters and analyse calculation results.The results indicate that the development of online shopping can significantly reduce the carbon emission from urban passenger transport,especially the part of motor vehicle shopping trips.

关 键 词：城市交通 碳排放 网络购物 巢式LOGIT模型 马尔科夫链 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]