基于ARIMA模型对广东省生猪价格的短期预测  

Short Term Prediction of the Price of Live Pigs in Guangdong Province Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：黄文玲[1] 郑晓颖 Breda McCarthy 张大斌[1] HUANG Wen-ling;ZHENG Xiao-ying;Breda McCarthy;ZHANG Da-bin(South China Agricultural University,College of Mathematics and Informatics,Guangdong Guangzhou 510642,China;James Cook University,College of Business,Law&Governance,Australia Townsville,4810 Australia)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学数学与信息学院,广东广州510642 [2]詹姆斯.库克大学商业法律与管理学院

出　　处：《中国畜牧杂志》2018年第12期119-123,共5页Chinese Journal of Animal Science

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金项目(2016A030313402)

摘　　要：众多农产品中,猪肉价格波动对物价水平以及居民消费价格指数的影响尤为显著,提前预测生猪价格对调控生猪市场供需关系有重要意义。本研究采用ARIMA时间序列分析模型,以广东省生猪2012—2015年月平均价格为分析与建模基础,对广东省生猪2016年月平均价格进行预测,预测结果良好。Among a large number of agricultural products,the fluctuation of the price of pork greatly affects the price level and the consumer price index.Predicting the price of live pigs in advance is significant for balancing the relationship between supply and demand of live pigs in the market.The main analysis method used in the study was one of time series analysis methods--ARIMA.Based the monthly average price of live pigs in Guangdong province from 2012 to 2015,we predicted the monthly average price of live pigs in Guangdong province in 2016 and got a good forecast result.

关 键 词：生猪 价格 预测 时间序列分析 ARIMA 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]