基于累积前景理论的机场群旅客出行决策行为分析  

Passenger Travel Choice in Multiple Airport System Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

作　　者：徐爱庆[1,2] 陈欣[3] 朱金福[1] XU Ai-qing;CHEN Xin;ZHU Jin-fu(Department of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;Department of Applied Mathematics,Nanjing University ofFinance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China;Department of Management Engineering, Nanjing University ofFinance and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016 [2]南京财经大学应用数学学院,南京210023 [3]南京财经大学管理科学与工程学院,南京210023

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2018年第6期14-21,共8页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金(18GLB006);教育部人文社科青年基金(18YJC630013);中央高校基本科研业务经费专项资金(N22016109)~~

摘　　要：基于累积前景理论研究了机场群旅客出行决策行为.针对不同出行需求的旅客,综合计划延误时间、票价、出行在途时间"可靠性"和"不可靠性"动态设置出行决策参考点,并考虑航班容量限制因素,构建了旅客出行选择模型,并将实证调查数据分别与累积前景理论和期望效用理论仿真结果进行对比验证.研究表明:前景理论模型能够有效地描述机场群航空旅客的出行路径决策过程,旅客选择行为随着出行目的不同而不同;与期望效用理论模型比较,该模型对描述航空旅客决策行为具有更好的适应性.因此,机场应根据自身市场定位并结合旅客有限理性特点优化航班频率、票价和航线网络结构.Based on the cumulative prospect theory,the passenger travel behavior in multi-airport system is studied.For the passengers with different travel demand,the paper sets trip dynamic reference point according to planning delay time,fare,travel budget time"reliability"and"unreliability".We build a passenger travel choice model and made an empirical analysis considering the limited flight capacity.The passenger travel selection model is constructed and the empirical survey data is compared with simulation results of the prospective theory and the expected theory.The study shows that in multi-airport system passenger travel decision-making model can effectively describe the passenger's path decision-making process.The passenger decision-making behavior varies with the purpose of travel.The cumulative prospect theory can describe air passenger decision-making behavior better than the expected utility theory.Therefore,airports should combine passengers'limited rational characteristics and its own market positioning to optimize flight frequencies,fares and route network structures.

关 键 词：航空运输 出行决策 累积前景理论 区域机场群 参考点 

分 类 号：U268.6[机械工程—车辆工程]