基于情景分析的新疆棉花虚拟水战略环境影响评价  

Strategic Environmental Assessment of Virtual Water Based on Scenario Analysis for Xinjiang's Cotton

作　　者：方芳 马琼[1] Fang Fang;Ma Qiong(College of Economics and Management,Tarim University,Alar,Xinjiang843300)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《塔里木大学学报》2018年第4期83-89,共7页Journal of Tarim University

摘　　要：为了分析新疆棉花虚拟水战略对环境的影响,按照自治区"十三五"规划纲要,设置不同情景,对比分析各情景下2020年和2025年棉花虚拟水战略对环境的影响。结果得出提高单产对棉花消费水影响最大(减少62. 23亿m^3),调整种植业结构与高效灌溉技术对种植业消费水影响最大(减少87. 52亿m^3);调整种植业结构与高效灌溉技术使林地与草地面积增加最多;增加棉花进口相当于就业人数将减少33. 25万人,但不一定引起当地人口失业的增加,同时对于农户增收来说是一个不错的机遇。最后根据虚拟水战略的环境影响,建议新疆应适当进口棉花,主攻单产,同时按照"十三五"规划优化种植结构,着力推广微灌技术,提高灌溉效率。According to the"13th Five-Year Plan"of the autonomous region,different scenarios were set up to compare and analyze the strategic environmental impact of the virtual water for Xinjiang's cotton in2020and2025under each scenario.The results showed that increasing yield has the greatest impact on cotton consumption water(reducing6.22billion m3),adjusting planting structure and high-efficiency irrigation technology have the greatest impact on planting consumption water(reducing8.752billion m3);adjusting planting structure and efficient irrigation technology,the area of woodland and grassland increase the most;the increase in cotton imports will reduce the number of employed people by33.25,but it's does not necessarily lead to an increase in the unemployment of the local population,and it is a good opportunity for farmers to increase their income.Finally,according to the environmental impact of virtual water strategy,put forward the proposal of virtual water strategy,Xinjiang should import cotton properly,focus on per unit yield,at the same time,combined with the13th Five-Year Plan to optimize the planting structure,pay attention to the promotion of micro-irrigation technology to improve irrigation efficiency.

关 键 词：虚拟水战略 情景分析 棉花 新疆 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]