基于地理回归模型的城市房价时空演变研究  

Study on Spatial-temporal Evolution of Urban Housing Prices Based on Geographically Weighted Regressing Model

作　　者：陈少沛 张慧霞[1] 庄大昌[1] CHEN Shaopei;ZHANG Huixia;ZHUANG Dachang(Department of Land and Real-estate Management, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou510320, China)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学土地与房地产管理系,广东广州510320

出　　处：《地理信息世界》2018年第6期17-24,30,共9页Geomatics World

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金项目(2015A030313626)资助

摘　　要：以广州市2009～2015年各镇街的商品住宅均价为对象,选取区位因子,即"到中央商务区(Central Business District, CBD)距离"及交通可达性、商业服务强度、公共服务资源等4类特征因素,应用空间自相关分析模型、传统回归模型和地理加权回归模型,探讨广州市商品住宅价格的空间非平稳性和异质性特征。结果表明,城市商品住宅价格增长趋势与其城市发展规划战略与功能区布局密切相关;对商品住宅均价影响最为明显因素是区位因素,其次是商业服务强度,交通通达水平和公共服务资源建设,其中"到CBD距离"和公共服务资源强度指数的回归系数空间格局呈现"东强西弱"的特征,而交通可达性和商业服务强度指数则"西强东弱",并表现出以中心城区和中央商务区为中心的圈层结构和随距离递减的规律。Taking a case study of the city of Guangzhou,this paper applies sophisticated approaches,including spatial autocorrelation analysis models,traditional regression models and Geographically Weighted Regressing(GWR)model to analyze and discuss the spatial non-stationarity and heterogeneity characteristics of housing prices,in term of the data of the average housing price of each block from 2009 to 2015.In this study,four types of impacts,i.e.,location(distance to Central Business District(CBD)),transport accessibility,business service intensity and public service resources are selected.As the results show,the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of housing prices are closely related to the layout and development of urban areas.Furthermore,among the selected impacts,location is the most important factors affecting the average housing price in each block,and other impacts are business service intensity,transport accessibility level and public service resource construction,respectively.Specifically,the spatial patterns based on the regression coefficients of the distance to CBD and the construction of public service resources illustrate the house prices spatial distribution characteristics of"east strong and west weak".Contrarily,the spatial patterns based on the transport accessibility level and commercial service intensity show"west strong and east weak",which present the circle structure characteristics with the center of the urban districts and the central business district.

关 键 词：住宅价格 地理加权回归模型 时空演变 空间异质性 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]