地球工程对中国极端降雨致灾人口风险的影响研究  

Impact of Geoengineering on Population Risk of Extreme Rainfall in China

作　　者：孔锋 吕丽莉[2,3] 孙劭[4] 王品 辛源[2] KONG Feng;LU Lili;SUN Shao;WANG Pin;XIN Yuan(Emergency Management Base, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084,China;China Meteorological Administration Training Center, China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081, China;Central Asia Atmospheric Sciences Center, Urumqi 830002, China;National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences,College of Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院应急管理研究基地,北京100084 [2]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081 [3]中亚大气科学研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [4]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [5]杭州师范大学理学院遥感与地球科学研究所,浙江杭州311121

出　　处：《灾害学》2019年第1期99-106,134,共9页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划(2015CB953603);国家自然科学基金项目(41801064; 71790611; 41701103; 41775078);中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201843; CCSF201844);中亚大气科学研究基金(CAAS201804)

摘　　要：在地球工程对中国极端降雨致灾因子危险性影响的研究基础上,采用BNU-ESM模式的地球工程(G4试验)和非地球工程(RCP4. 5)日值降雨数据,以日均值降雨量的95%分位数定义极端降雨事件。同时结合IPCC SSP3情景下的中国分省人口数据,评估了中国极端降雨灾害受影响人口风险,并对两种情景下的风险进行对比分析。结果表明:地球工程能够有效降低中国整体极端降雨灾害受影响人口风险,且实施期间的降低作用高于实施结束期。两种情景下中国极端降雨灾害受影响人口风险的区域差异增大,地球工程未能改变中国极端降雨灾害受影响人口风险的相对格局,表明在当前Geo MIP模式设定的地球工程实施当量下,人类能够有效降低气候变化风险,且不影响区域气候相对格局。Based on the study of the influence of geoengineering on extreme rainfall in China, the BNU-ESM model of the geoengineering (G4 experiment) and the non-geoengineering (RCP4.5) daily rainfall data are used to define the extreme rainfall events with the 95% digits of daily mean rainfall in this research. At the same time, combined with the population data of China under the IPCC SSP3 scenario, the risk of the affected population of extreme rainfall in China is evaluated and the risk under the two scenarios is compared and analyzed. The results show that: Geoengineering can effectively reduce the affected population risk of extreme rainfall disasters in China, and the reduction during implementation is higher than the end of implementation. In the two scenario, the regional difference of the affected population risk of extreme rainfall disaster by China is increasing. Geoengineering failed to change the relative pattern of the affected population risk of extreme rainfall disasters in China. It shows that in the current GeoMIP mode of geoengineering implementation equivalence, human beings can effectively reduce the risk of climate change and do not affect the relative pattern of regional climate.

关 键 词：地球工程 极端降雨灾害 人口风险 区域差异 重现期 中国 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P642[天文地球—工程地质学]