影响海南岛台风的时空特征分析  

Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of TC in Hainan Island

作　　者：张丽杰[1,2] 刘建成 朱慧云[1,2] ZHANG Lijie;LIU Jiancheng;ZUH Huiyun(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, NUIST,Nanjing 210044, China;School of Management Engineering, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《灾害学》2019年第1期135-138,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA047);江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2016SJB630021);江苏省社会科学基金(17ZZD003);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目;国家公益性行业专向(GYHY 201506051)

摘　　要：使用1971-2010年的热带气旋路径数据资料和热带气旋潜在影响力指数方法,在西北太平洋生成的所有热带气旋中,筛选出对海南岛有影响的热带气旋,并对其进行时空特征分析。分析发现:影响海南岛的热带气旋生成位置呈现斜向带状分布。高影响热带气旋的分布更加集中。1971-2010年间,影响海南岛热带气旋的数量在减少,同时发生月份更加集中。如果气候变冷,需要警惕影响海南热带气旋增多,月份更加分散现象。Hainan Island has excellent tourism resources and also are the main areas affected by TCs. This paper uses the TC route data from 1971 to 2010 and the TC Potential Impact Index method to screen all TCs generated from the Northwest Pacific. The TCs that have an impact on Hainan Island are analyzed and analyzed for their spatial-temporal characteristics. The location of impact Hainan Island TCs has an oblique band distribution. The distribution of high-impact TCs has become more concentrated. Between 1971 and 2010, the number of TCs affecting Hainan Island has been decreasing, and the occurrence of TCs has been more concentrated in the same month. If the climate is cold, it needs to be vigilant to influence the increase of TCs in Hainan, and the issue of the month is more dispersed.

关 键 词：海南岛 热带气旋 时空分布 特征 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]