中国鸡蛋产业链不同市场环节价格传导效应分析  

Price Conduction Effect of Different Market Links in China's Egg Industry

作　　者：郑燕[1] 丁存振 马骥[1] ZHENG Yan;DING Cun-zhen;MA Ji(School of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2018年第6期727-737,共11页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：北京市农业局项目(BMBA2015)

摘　　要：利用2011年6月—2018年6月的蛋鸡配合饲料价格、鸡蛋批发价格和鸡蛋零售价格的周度数据分别代表鸡蛋产业链上、中、下游价格,运用VEC模型、Granger因果关系检验及三元BEKK-GARCH(1,1)模型考察我国鸡蛋产业链不同市场环节价格传导效应。结果表明:从长期看,我国鸡蛋产业链的上、中、下游价格呈现同步变动,且鸡蛋批发价格对鸡蛋零售价格的影响最大,饲料价格对鸡蛋零售价格的影响相对较小。从短期来看,鸡蛋产业链各市场价格间存在双向均值溢出效应,鸡蛋配合饲料价格和鸡蛋批发价格均受鸡蛋零售价格的影响较大,而鸡蛋零售价格受鸡蛋批发价格的影响较大;从价格波动溢出效应来看,鸡蛋产业链上、中、下游各市场间存在双向波动溢出效应,反映了鸡蛋产业链各市场价格波动既可以沿着产业链传导,也可以逆产业链传导,且波动溢出效应类型存在差异;从市场关联性看,蛋鸡饲料价格与鸡蛋批发价格、鸡蛋零售价格间的关联性相对较小,鸡蛋批发价格与鸡蛋零售价格间的关联性相对较大。This paper used weekly data of formula feed price,wholesale price and retail price of eggs from June2011to June2018to represent the upstream,middle and downstream of the egg industry chain respectively.It then used VEC model,Granger causality test and BEKK-GARCH(1,1)model to examine the price transmission effects of different market segments in China's egg industry chain.The results showed that the price of eggs in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of China's egg industry chain changes synchronously,and that the wholesale price of eggs has the greatest impact on the retail price of eggs while the feed price has a relatively small impact in the long term.In the short run,there was a two-way mean spillover effect among the market prices of the egg industry chain.The price of egg formula feed is greatly affected by the retail price of eggs,the wholesale price of eggs is greatly affected by the retail price which is greatly affected by the wholesale price.From the spillover effect of price fluctuation,there is a two-way spillover effect among the markets in the egg industry chain,which reflects that the price fluctuation in the egg industry chain can be transmitted along or against the industry chain,and that the types of spillover effect are different.

关 键 词：蛋鸡配合饲料价格 批发价格 零售价格 BEKK-GARCH模型 鸡蛋产业链 价格传导 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]