基于交互式预测模型对“二孩政策”影响的定量研究  

Quantitative study of the influence of “Two-Child Policy” on the interactive forecast model

作　　者：刘奎 王梦宇 范兴奎[3] LIU Kui;WANG Meng-yu;FAN Xing-kui(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China;School of Business,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China;School of Science,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,青岛266520 [2]青岛理工大学商学院,青岛266520 [3]青岛理工大学理学院,青岛266520

出　　处：《青岛理工大学学报》2019年第1期129-137,共9页Journal of Qingdao University of Technology

基　　金：山东省教育科学"十二五"规划2015年度高等教育学科教学专项课题(CBS15010);山东省本科高校教学改革研究面上项目(2015M091)

摘　　要：研究"二孩政策"实施后我国人口的变化趋势.选取8个评价指标建立模糊综合评价模型,达到量化"二孩政策"对我国人口影响的目的.首先在不考虑"二孩政策"造成生育率变化的情况下,建立灰色预测模型对部分指标分别进行预测.随后建立基于生育率变化的Leslie人口预测模型,对2016—2020年的人口数量进行预测.最后结合2种预测模型的优点,建立交互式人口预测模型,实现2015—2050年我国人口的预测.结果表明"二孩政策"的实施能够优化我国人口结构,因此应鼓励家庭积极响应政策.The article studies the changing trend of Chinese population after“Two-Child Policy”has been implemented.It selects 8 indicators to build up fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to achieve the purpose of quantifying the impact of“Two-Child Policy”on Chinese population.First of all,without considering the fertility changes caused by“Two-Child Policy”,the article establishes a grey forecast model to predict the parts of the indicators separately.Subsequently,the Leslie population forecast model based on the fertility changes is established to predict the population from 2016 to 2020.Finally,combining the advantage of two forecast model,it establishes an interactive population prediction model to predict the population from 2015 to 2050.The results show that the implementation of the"Two-Child Policy"can optimize Chinese population structure.Therefore,this policy will get the response of all families.

关 键 词：二孩政策 模糊综合评价 熵权法 灰色预测模型 Leslie人口预测模型 交互式人口预测模型 

分 类 号：O24[理学—计算数学] C921[理学—数学]