城镇新增住房需求、住房及土地供给的空间错位分析  

Spatial Mismatch Analysis of Newly-Increased Housing Demand,Housing and Land Supply in Urban Areas

作　　者：翁钢民[1,2] 潘越 WENG Gang-min;PAN Yue(School of Economics and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004;Research Center of Regional Economic Development,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]燕山大学区域经济发展研究中心,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2019年第1期75-81,共7页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(41501597);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(14YJA790059);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(18YJC790084);河北省研究生创新资助项目(CXZZSS2017057)

摘　　要：在人口城镇化视域下,基于2005-2015年住房需求、住房及土地供给相关数据,以我国31个省市区为研究对象,着眼于当前新增城镇人口所引致的刚性需求,运用重力模型和空间错位模型,探讨我国城镇新增住房需求、住房及土地供给水平空间错位问题。结果表明:三者之间存在空间分离现象,且随时间推移,住房与土地供给空间失配现象逐渐缓解,而住房需求与供给错位问题却逐步恶化;新增住房需求-供给空间错位指数总体上呈上升趋势,错位指数上升的地区主要集中在天津、上海等地,是改善错位问题的关键地区;针对新增住房供不应求的关键地区,深入探究其错位原因是否与土地供给有关,以期为合理优化空间布局、缓解我国住房市场供需失配问题提供决策参考。Data of housing demand,housing and land supply for 2005-2015 are collected for analysis,where 31 provincial areas of China are taken as the research objects under the population urbanization.Considering the newly-increased urban population generating a rigid demand,we combine the gravity center model and spatial mismatch method to explore the spatial mismatch among newly-increased housing demand,housing and land supply in urban areas of each province.The results indicate that housing demand,housing and land supply centers all shifted westward,while housing demand center shifted southward and housing supply center shifted northward.Therefore,there is a spatial mismatch among them,and the mismatch of housing and land supply is on a decrease,while housing demand and supply is on an increase.The spatial mismatch degree of housing demand and supply shows an upward tendency,and the central mismatch areas are Tianjin,Shanghai,which are the keys for solving the issues of mismatch.The reasons of the spatial mismatch are different for different areas,so we should adopt the appropriate supply policy on a case-by-case basis.

关 键 词：住房供求 土地供应 空间错位 人口城镇化 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]