2018年中国禽蛋市场形势回顾与2019年展望  

China's Eggs Market in 2018 and Its Prospect for 2019

作　　者：张超[1] 于海鹏[1] Zhang Chao;Yu Haipeng(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2018年第12期16-19,共4页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：国家重点研发计划专题"水畜产品生产及饲料粮需求研究"(2017YFE0;460303);2018年农业农村部专项"农业信息监测预警"

摘　　要：2018年中国蛋鸡产业禁养、限养的环保政策继续实施,祖代、父母代种鸡产能继续调整,高温天气和疫病对蛋鸡生产性能影响加剧,全年产蛋鸡存栏整体低于2017年,也低于近3年的平均水平;鸡蛋产量上半年基本稳定,下半年季节性偏紧;消费需求整体平淡,季节性特征明显;蛋价波动上涨,部分月份波动幅度较大;蛋鸡养殖盈利水平较高;禽蛋出口量同比大幅减少,贸易顺差持续。预计2019年蛋鸡存栏有望稳中略增,产量稳中略涨;市场有望保持较好行情,但整体弱于2018年。建议,禽蛋生产企业提升禽蛋精深加工能力,加快禽蛋品牌化建设;禽蛋市场监测主体完善禽蛋监测预警体系建设,有效引导市场决策;蛋禽风险防范主体完善养殖风险防控机制,有效减缓市场风险。In 2018,the environmental protection policy of banning and restricting the production of laying hens continued being implemented in China.The capacity of breeding hens of ancestors and parents continued adjusting,and the impact of high temperature weather and epidemic disease on the performance of laying hens intensified.So the stock of laying hens in the whole year was lower than 2017,and also lower than the average level in recent three years.The eggs production was basically stable in the first half of the year and seasonally tight in the second half.The consumption demand was flat as a whole with obvious seasonal characteristics.The eggs prices fluctuated upwards with large fluctuations in some months.The profit level of laying hens was relatively high.The export volume of poultry eggs decreased significantly year on year in 2018,and trade surplus continued.It is expected that hen stocks will increase steadily and slightly in 2019,as well as the production.The market is expected to maintain a good conjuncture,but will be weaker than 2018.It is suggested that the manufacturing enterprises of eggs should improve the ability of intensive processing of eggs and accelerate the brand building of eggs,the subject of eggs market monitoring should perfect the construction of eggs monitoring and early warning system and guide the market decision-making effectively,and the subject of controlling eggs risk should improve the mechanism of breeding risk prevention and control in order to effectively mitigate the market risk.

关 键 词：禽蛋 价格 存栏量 蛋料比 养殖效益 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]