青海交通碳排放影响因素及预测研究  

Research on Influencing Factors and Prediction of Transportation Carbon Emissions in Qinghai

作　　者：卞利花[1] 吉敏全[1] BIAN Lihua;JI Minquan(School of Finance and Economics,Qinghai University,Xining Qinghai 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学财经学院,青海西宁810016

出　　处：《生态经济》2019年第2期35-39,100,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于生态安全的青海三江源地区低碳交通体系构建研究"(71463048);教育部"春晖计划"科技项目"生态文明视域下青海省交通体系碳排放测算及减排路径研究"(S2015035)

摘　　要：科学考察交通碳排放的影响因素,对碳减排具有重要的指导意义。文章利用STIRPAT模型定量分析了2002—2016年青海经济发展水平(以人均GDP表示)、交通自身影响(客、货运周转量)、技术进步(以能源强度表示)、城市化率和私人汽车拥有量对交通碳排放的影响。通过岭回归模拟结果可知,各影响因素与交通碳排放总量均呈正相关关系,影响程度由大到小为:城市化率>能源强度>客运周转量>货运周转量>人均GDP>私人汽车拥有量。在此研究的基础上,通过设置基准情景和6种减排情景,预测了青海交通未来的碳排放量,结果表明,青海交通碳减排的重点是提高技术水平,通过提高能源利用效率降低交通碳排放量。Scientific investigation of the influencing factors of carbon emissions from transportation has important guiding significance for carbon emission reduction.Using the STIRPAT model,this paper quantitatively analyzes the effects of economic development level(expressed by per capita GDP),transportation impact(passenger and freight turnover),technological progress(expressed by energy intensity),urbanization rate and private car ownership on transportation carbon emissions in Qinghai from 2002 to 2016.The results of ridge regression show that each influence factor is positively related to the total amount of transportation carbon emissions,and the magnitude of the impact from large to small is:urbanization rate >energy intensity >passenger turnover >freight turnover >per capita GDP >and private car ownership.On this foundation,the future carbon emissions of Qinghai transportation are predicted by setting benchmarks and 6 kinds of emission reduction scenarios.The results show that the key point of carbon emission reduction in Qinghai transportation is to improve the technical level,and effectively reduce the carbon emissions by improving the energy utilization rate.

关 键 词：交通碳排放 STIRPAT模型 影响因素 岭回归 情景分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]