基于改进竞争性假设分析的战役企图分析方法  

Analysis method of campaign attempt based on improved analysis of competing hypothesis

作　　者：吕学志 胡晓峰[1] 吴琳[1] 贺筱媛[1] Lü Xuezhi;HU Xiaofeng;WU Lin;HE Xiaoyuan(College of Joint Operations, National Defense University, Beijing 100091, China;The Ninth Comprehensive Training Base of Army, Xuanhua 075100, China)

机构地区：[1]国防大学联合作战学院,北京100091 [2]陆军第九综合训练基地教研部,河北宣化075100

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2019年第3期555-563,共9页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61703412;U1435218;61403401;61374179;61273189;61174156;61174035);中国博士后科学基金(2017M613360)资助课题

摘　　要：对敌方战役企图的分析判断是确定我方战役企图和制定、实施战役计划的基础,对战役的成败具有至关重要的作用。首先,对战役企图和竞争性假设分析(analysis of competing hypothesis,ACH)进行了介绍。然后,分析了现有ACH存在的不足,并给出了改进方法,即在证据敏感性分析中利用贝叶斯网络描述证据与假设关系,利用理想点解法(technique for order preference by similarity to solution,TOPSIS)对证据进行欺骗性评估,根据证据的欺骗可能性对各种假设进行推理。最后,以诺曼底登陆战役为例,从德军的视角使用所提方法对盟军登陆点进行了分析,证明了改进后的ACH方法可以更加合理、有效地应用于战役企图分析。The analysis and judgment of enemy campaign attempt are the basis for determining our own campaign attempt and for formulating and implementing our own campaign plan. They are crucial to the success or failure of the campaign. First, concepts of campaign attempt and analysis of competing hypothesis (ACH) are introduced briefly. Then, it analyzes the shortcomings of the existing ACH and gives the improving method. At the step of sensitivity analysis, a Bayesian network is used for describing relation of evidence and hypothesis at first. Then, technique for order preference by similarity to solution (TOPSIS) is used for denial & deception assessment of evidence. At last, Bayesian networks is used to infer possibility of hypothesis basing on denial & deception possibility of evidence. Finally, taking the Normandy Landing Campaign as an example, the method of this article is used to analyze the landing zones of Allied Forces from the perspective of the Germans, which proves that the improved ACH can be applied more reasonably and effectively to the campaign attempt analysis.

关 键 词：战役企图 贝叶斯网络 竞争性假设分析 理想点解法 态势认知 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]