策略性竞争、空间效应与中国经济增长收敛性  

Strategic Competition, Spatial Effects and the Convergence of Economic Growth in China

作　　者：师博[1] 任保平[2] SHI Bo;REN Baoping(Northwest University, Xi'an, China;Northwest University, Xi'an, China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院 [2]西北大学中国西部经济发展研究中心,邮政编码710127

出　　处：《经济学动态》2019年第2期47-62,共16页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新常态下地方经济增长质量和效益的监测预警系统和政策支撑体系构建研究”(15ZDA012);教育部人文社会科学基金“新常态下中国经济增长数量和质量多维互动机制研究”(17XJA790004)资助。

摘　　要：本文基于Metafrontier方向性距离函数,测度1992—2017年中国省际经济增长质量指数,经验分析地区间财政支出策略性竞争行为在经济增长数量和质量收敛机制中的空间效应。研究表明:省际经济增长数量并未趋同,而经济增长质量却具有显著收敛特征;忽略空间效应会高估经济增长数量收敛性,经济增长质量年均收敛速度则会被低估38.4%。空间交互效应分析表明,地方政府策略性竞争行为体现在:一方面,用于生态环境治理及民生等领域的财政支出存在"逐底竞争",使地方政府缺乏"为增长质量而竞争"的激励。部分地区策略性地选择以牺牲经济增长质量为代价,换取短期数量型经济增长;另一方面,地方政府倾向于通过财政支出带动经济数量增长,其他地区会对本地财政支出变动做出策略性反应,并通过空间反馈效应强化地区间的财政支出竞争。由于收入能力的差异,策略性竞争行为拉大了地区间财政支出差距,使经济增长数量难以收敛。同时,地方政府的策略性竞争行为也会引发有偏的财政支出结构,进而财政支出占比上升将抑制经济增长质量。Based on the Metafrontier directional distance function, this paper measures the quality index of China's inter-provincial economic growth from 1992 to 2017, and empirically analyses the spatial effects of regional strategic competition in fiscal expenditure on the convergence mechanism of the quantity and quality of economic growth. Research results indicate that the quantity of inter-provincial economic growth does not converge, but the quality of economic growth exhibits significant convergence properties. Ignoring the spatial effect will overestimate the convergence of the quantity of economic growth, while the average annual convergence rate of the quality of economic growth will be underestimated by 38.4%. Estimates of spatial interaction effects show that local governments strategic competition behavior is reflected in two aspects: On the one hand, there is a ‘race to the bottom competition’ in fiscal expenditure on environmental protection and people's wellbeing, resulting in the lack of incentives for local governments to “compete for the quality of growth”. Therefore some regions strategically choose to strive for the quantity of economic growth in the short run in the expense of lower quality of economic growth. On the other hand, some local governments tend to fuel economic growth through fiscal expenditure, while other regions will respond strategically to such changes in local fiscal expenditure. Therefore the regional fiscal expenditure competition would be strengthened through spatial feedback effect. Due to the difference in fiscal revenue, strategic competition widens the gap of fiscal expenditure among regions, which leads to the slow convergence of the quantity of economic growth. At the same time, the strategic competition behavior of local governments will also lead to a biased structure of fiscal expenditure, and the increasing proportion of fiscal expenditure will inhibit the quality improvement of economic growth.

关 键 词：收敛性 SDM 直接效应 空间反馈效应 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]