船舶风险控制方案的层次分析-模糊综合评价  

Evaluation Model for Risk Control Scheme Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：李若皙 唐文勇[1] 李晓冬[1,2] LI Ruoxi;TANG Wenyong;LI Xiaodong(State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China;Qingdao University of Science and Technology, City Disaster Prerention and Control Engineering Technology Center, Qingdao 266033, China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室,上海200240 [2]青岛理工大学山东省城市灾变预防与控制工程技术中心,山东青岛266033

出　　处：《中国航海》2019年第1期68-72,共5页Navigation of China

基　　金：工信部高技术船舶科研项目(GC0100096)

摘　　要：针对船舶事故综合风险评估过程中风险控制措施效果的评价影响因素繁多、评价主观性和不确定性较强的问题,以层次分析法建立风险评价指标体系,确定各制约因素的权重值,利用模糊集理论建立各指标因素的隶属度矩阵和模糊综合评价矩阵,在此基础上建立船舶风险控制方案效果的层次分析-模糊综合评价模型。以普通货船碰撞事故为例,建立船舶碰撞事故层级结构,通过专家调查问卷的形式统计分析专家意见,采用层次分析-模糊综合评价模型对普通货船碰撞事故风险控制方案进行评价,算例验证该评价模型在船舶综合风险评估过程中应用的可行性和合理性。To evaluate the effect of a risk measure can be difficult because it may be under the influence of quite a few factors. Besides, the objectiveness may be questionable in some cases. The analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are introduced into the ship safety evaluation to improve the process. The former is used to determine the weights of each influencing factor while the latter to set up the membership matrix and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix. A case study introduced shows that the proposed approach is reasonable and feasible.

关 键 词：综合风险评估 风险控制方案 层次分析法 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]