海上丝绸之路关键海峡/运河安全效率研究  

Safety Efficiency of Strait/Canal on the Maritime Silk Road

作　　者：宫晓婞 吕靖 李辉[2] GONG Xiao-xing;LV Jing;LI Hui(Transportation Engineering College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Teaching and Research Institute of Foreign Languages,Bohai University Jinzhou 121013 ,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]渤海大学大学外语教研部,辽宁锦州121013

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2019年第3期173-182,共10页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71731003;71473023;71603036);国家社科基金重大研究专项项目(18VHQ005);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(17YJCZH050)

摘　　要：海峡/运河是海上丝绸之路的重要节点,其安全性决定海上丝绸之路能否正常运行,因而研究海峡/运河的安全性至关重要。本文通过改进松弛变量度量模型(SBM),构造了基于非期望要素的SBM集成性排序方法,揭示了海峡/运河安全效率的完全排序;根据删除某指标不影响效率排序则应剔除该指标的思路,筛选最优评价指标体系;通过计算某指标对决策单元效率的影响程度,确定海峡/运河安全效率关键影响因素。实证结果表明,马六甲海峡安全效率较高,而曼德海峡安全效率较低,其余四个海峡/运河效率居中,且相差不大;海盗和船舶事故是影响安全效率的重要因素。Straits/Canals are the important nodes on the maritime Silk Road,and the safety of them has a significant impact on daily operation of the maritime Silk Road,so it is necessary to investigate the safety of straits/canals.In this paper,a full-ranking slack-based measure(SBM)model with undesirable outputs is proposed,which could reveal the full ranking of safety efficiency of straits/canals.If one indicator has no effect on the safety efficiencies of straits/canals,the indicator should be eliminated,by which this paper makes a screening on the indicators system.The key influencing factors of safety efficiency of different straits/canals are determined by measuring the impact on efficiency of decision making units for individual index.The empirical results show that the Malacca Strait is highly efficient,while the Mandeb Strait is low efficient.The other four straits/canals are medium-ranked and have little difference.Piracy and ship accidents are important factors affecting safety efficiencies of straits/canals.

关 键 词：海上丝绸之路 海峡/运河 安全效率 

分 类 号：U6-9[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]