空间负荷预测法的应用实例及要点分析  

Application Examples and Main Point Analysis for the Spatial Load Forecasting

作　　者：王梦蔚[1] 晏阳 Wang Mengwei;Yan Yang(State Grid Nanjing Power Supply Corporation, Nanjing Jiangsu 210000, China;China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Electric Power Design Institute, Nanjing Jiangsu 211102, China)

机构地区：[1]国网南京供电公司,江苏南京210000 [2]中国能源建设集团江苏省电力设计院,江苏南京211102

出　　处：《电气自动化》2019年第2期42-44,55,共4页Electrical Automation

摘　　要：负荷预测是配网规划的基础,负荷总量及其空间分布的合理确定,对于配电网的精细管理及资源的优化配置有着重要的意义。就工程中应用最为广泛的一种空间负荷预测方法,即负荷密度指标法进行了分析,给出了在对单一地块及整个规划片区进行负荷预测的实例,并对预测结果进行了证验。最后,分析了负荷密度指标法在电动汽车、分布式发电等逐步普及的新形势下,在负荷预测时需重点关注的要点。Load forecasting is the basis of distribution network planning. Reasonable determination of total load and its spatial distribution is of great significance for the fine management of the distribution network and optimal allocation of resources. Load density index method, a spatial load forecasting method widely used in engineering, was analyzed. Examples of load forecasting were given for a single plot and for the entire planned area and forecasting results were verified. Finally, this paper analyzed some key points to which close attention should be paid in the new situation of gradual popularization of electric vehicles and distributed generation.

关 键 词：配网规划 空间负荷预测 负荷密度指标法 电动汽车充电设施 分布式能源 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]