兰渝运输通道内多种运输方式客流分担率研究  

Research on the Passenger Flow Sharing Rate of Multiple Transportation Modes in Lanzhou-Chongqing Transportation Corridor

作　　者：李文霞 张春民[1] 李卓 李家宝 潘帅 LI Wenxia;ZHANG Chunmin;LI Zhuo;LI Jiabao;PAN Shuai(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2019年第2期321-326,共6页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(15YJAZH106);兰州交通大学百名青年优秀人才培养计划资助

摘　　要：从提高通道内整体运输效益最大化角度出发,考虑不同收入水平旅客对运输属性的主观偏好,采用修正熵权法对指标权重进行赋值,构建广义出行费用,运用改进Logit模型对兰州至重庆既有线普铁、高铁换乘、航空三种交通出行方式的客流分担率进行有效计算,并对既有线运输属性中的票价和运行速度进行单因素灵敏度分析.对运输通道内客流分担率的变化做出预测.From the perspective of maximizing the overall transportation benefits in the corridor,considering the subjective preference of passengers with different income levels for transportation attributes, the modified entropy weight method was used to assign the index weight,and the generalized travel cost was constructed.The improved Logit model was used to calculate the passenger flow sharing rate of three modes of transportation from Lanzhou to Chongqing,i.e.ordinary rail,high-speed rail transfer and air travel.The single factor sensitivity analysis was carried out on the ticket price and operation speed in the transportation attributes of the existing lines.Finally,the change of passenger flow sharing rate in the transportation corridor was predicted.

关 键 词：LOGIT模型 客流分担率 广义出行费用 修正熵权法 灵敏度分析 分担率预测 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]