随机需求下考虑顾客策略行为的预售和退货策略  

Optimal Advance-Selling and Return Strategies Considering Strategic Customer Behavior Under Stochastic Demand

作　　者：周振红[1] 黄深泽[2] ZHOU Zhenhong;HUANG Shenze(School of Business Administration,Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan 430205 , China;School of Information Management,Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan 430205 , China)

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院工商管理学院,武汉430205 [2]湖北经济学院信息管理学院,武汉430205

出　　处：《系统工程理论方法应用》2019年第2期277-284,共8页Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71572154);湖北省教育厅思政处项目(13y065)

摘　　要：预售策略目前已成为季节性产品零售商普遍采用的一种销售策略。策略型顾客在预售期购买商品尽管可以享受折扣的预售价格,但同时也面临着因不确定估值而可能带来的损失,所以顾客可能不愿意提前购买或提前购买了产品的顾客会选择在正常销售期间退货。此时零售商有两种策略可以选择:不进行预售、提供可退货服务的预售策略。针对市场需求不确定和顾客估值不确定并存的情况,利用均衡分析方法和理性预期理论分别建立了零售商不进行预售、允许顾客退货的预售策略的最优决策模型,并对这两种模型进行了求解与对比分析,以及敏感性分析。研究显示,当顾客对商品的估值较低时,零售商最好不要采取预售的方式。如果采取预售,则零售商的期望利润是退货补偿的严格凹函数。Advance-selling is a commonly observed industrial practice in which a retailer allows consumers to preorder the fashionable product before the real selling season. Although enjoying a discount price in the advance-selling season, the strategic consumers face valuation uncertainty and know their realization only after product acquisition. Therefore, they may not be willing to preorder the product or want to return the product in the real selling season. The retailer has two strategic options, no advanced-selling allowed(NA) and advance-selling with some refund(AR). Given aggregate demand uncertainty and consumer’s valuation uncertainty, optimization models were built in this paper for each option using the equilibrium analysis method and rational expectations theory. These two models are solved and the comparison analysis and sensitive analysis are performed. The study shows that advance-selling can hurt if consumer’s expected valuation is low. The retailer’s expected profit is concave function of refund when the retailer offers advance-selling.

关 键 词：预售 顾客策略行为 退货策略 

分 类 号：F731.36[经济管理—产业经济]