中国H5N1禽流感病毒传播的动力学研究  

Dynamics of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus Transmission in China

作　　者：高瑞 张娟 GAO Rui;ZHANG Juan(Complex System Research Center,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China;Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西大学复杂系统研究所,太原030006 [2]疾病防控的数学技术与大数据分析山西省重点实验室,太原030006

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》2019年第4期209-215,共7页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(11601292)

摘　　要：H5N1高致病禽流感在禽类中的广泛流行,不仅对家禽养殖业造成巨大的损失,而且严重威胁人类健康。以禽养殖与销售场所、养殖业相关人员、普通人群为研究对象,既考虑禽养殖与销售场所对人的感染,又考虑养殖业相关人员对禽养殖与销售场所的感染,建立基于场群的中国H5N1禽流感场群间传播动力学模型。首先,利用稳定性理论对模型进行了性态分析;再结合中国禽类结构、禽养殖与销售场所数以及感染情况,利用数值方法,计算出中国H5N1禽流感病毒传播的基本再生数R_0,利用数值模拟对R_0进行敏感性分析,从而定量评估防控措施的防控效果。The widespread prevalence of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in poultry not only causes huge losses to the poultry farming industry, but also poses a serious threat to human health. In China, breeding density of poultry is large and avian influenza virus spreads rapidly. The relevant departments take epidemic point as the unit to report, and hunt related poultry. The virus transmission between the farms is mainly through the activities of staff of breeding industry. In this paper, we take the poultry breeding farm and sales markets, staff of breeding industry and the general population as the research object, not only consider the infection of poultry breeding farm and sales markets to human, but also consider the effect of staff of breeding industry on the infection of poultry breeding farm and sales markets, to establish a dynamical model about the transmission of H5N1 avian influenza between farms in China. Firstly, we analyze the steady states of the model by applying stability theory. Furthermore, we calculate the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) of H5N1 avian influenza virus transmission in China by numerical method in combination with the culturing structure of poultry, poultry breeding farm and sales markets and the infection situation of poultry in China. In addition, we carry on sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) by numerical simulation to evaluate the effect of prevention and control measures.

关 键 词：H5N1高致病禽流感 基本再生数 稳定性 敏感性分析 防控措施 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学]