The Distribution and Uncertainty Quantification of Wind Profile in the Stochastic General Ekman Momentum Approximation Model  

作　　者：Bing YAN Sixun HUANG Jing FENG Yu WANG 

机构地区：[1]College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology [2]Center for Computational Science and Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2019年第2期336-348,共13页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(91730304,41575026,and 61371119)

摘　　要：The general Ekman momentum approximation boundary-layer model(GEM) can be effectively used to describe the physical processes of the boundary layer. However, eddy viscosity, which is an approximated value, can lead to uncertainty in the solutions. In this paper, stochastic eddy viscosity is taken into consideration in the GEM, and generalized polynomial chaos is used to quantify the uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification is to investigate the effects of uncertainty in the eddy viscosity on the model and to subsequently provide reliable distribution of simulation results. The performances of the stochastic eddy viscosity and generalized polynomial chaos method are validated based on three different types of eddy viscosities, and the results are compared based on the Monte Carlo method. The results indicate that the generalized polynomial chaos method can be accurately and efficiently used in uncertainty quantification for the GEM with stochastic eddy viscosity.The general Ekman momentum approximation boundary-layer model(GEM) can be effectively used to describe the physical processes of the boundary layer. However, eddy viscosity, which is an approximated value, can lead to uncertainty in the solutions. In this paper, stochastic eddy viscosity is taken into consideration in the GEM, and generalized polynomial chaos is used to quantify the uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification is to investigate the effects of uncertainty in the eddy viscosity on the model and to subsequently provide reliable distribution of simulation results. The performances of the stochastic eddy viscosity and generalized polynomial chaos method are validated based on three different types of eddy viscosities, and the results are compared based on the Monte Carlo method. The results indicate that the generalized polynomial chaos method can be accurately and efficiently used in uncertainty quantification for the GEM with stochastic eddy viscosity.

关 键 词：generalized POLYNOMIAL chaos MONTE Carlo method GENERAL EKMAN MOMENTUM approximation model EKMAN SPIRAL 

分 类 号：P[天文地球]