基于BIOMOD的黄河源区高原鼠兔潜在分布及其影响因子  

Potential distribution of plateau pika and its influence factors in the source region of the Yellow River Basin using BIOMOD

作　　者：杜嘉星 孙义 向波[5] 陈建军 秦彧 侯秀敏[7] 于红妍 宜树华 DU Jiaxing;SUN Yi;XIANG Bo;CHEN Jianjun;QIN Yu;HOU Xiumin;YU Hongyan;YI Shuhua(State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science/Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Geographic Science,Nantong University,Nantong 226007,Jiangsu,China;Institute of Fragile Eco-Environment,Nantong University,Nantong 226007,Jiangsu,China;Chongqing Climate Center,Chongqing 401147,China;College of Geomatics and Geoinformation,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541006,Guangxi,China;Qinghai Provincial Grassland Station,Xining 810008,Qinghai,China)

机构地区：[1]冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室/中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]南通大学地理科学学院,江苏南通226007 [4]南通大学脆弱生态环境研究所,江苏南通226007 [5]重庆市气候中心,重庆401147 [6]桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院,广西桂林541004 [7]青海省草原总站,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《草业科学》2019年第4期1074-1083,I0002,共11页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：国家重点研发项目(2017YFA0604801);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41501081);南通市空间信息技术研发与应用重点实验室(CP12016005)

摘　　要：高原鼠兔(Ochotona curzoniae)在黄河源区广泛分布,是高寒草地生态系统中的关键种。认识高原鼠兔的空间分布及其影响因子对了解草地退化的原因、"黑土滩"的形成和高原鼠兔对栖息地的选择以及在生态系统中的作用有重要意义。本研究使用无人机获取黄河源区的高原鼠兔存在/不存在数据,使用BIOMOD物种分布集成预测平台,用10种不同模型对该区域的高原鼠兔潜在分布进行预测。结果表明,应用BIOMOD能降低预测的不确定性和误差,提高预测的精度,随机森林(random forest, RF)能较好地预测该区域的高原鼠兔分布。本研究为预测高原鼠兔潜在分布提供了新的方法,研究结果可为当地高原鼠兔防治提供相应的科学依据。The plateau pika(Ochotona curzoniae)is widely distributed in the source region of the Yellow River Basin(SRYRB)and is a key species in the alpine grassland ecosystem.The spatial distribution of plateau pika and its influence factors are important for understanding the causes of grassland degradation,the formation of"black soil patches",plateau pika habitat selection,and the role of this species in the ecosystem.In this study,an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)was used for obtaining the presence/absence data of plateau pika in the SRYRB.The potential distribution of plateau pika in this region was predicted using 10 different models in the BIOMOD ensemble platform for species distribution modeling.The results show that the application of BIOMOD lowers the uncertainty and improves the prediction performance.The random forest(RF)model could best predict the distribution of plateau pika in this region.This study provides a new method for predicting the potential distribution of plateau pika,the results of which can provide the necessary scientific basis for the protection and control of local plateau pika.

关 键 词：高寒草地 草地退化 无人机 物种分布模型 BIOMOD 随机森林 

分 类 号：S812.6[农业科学—草业科学]