2017年成都市PM_(2.5)质量浓度与呼吸系统急救人次的关系  

PM_(2.5) and Emergency Calls for Health with Respiratory Diseases in Chengdu in 2017

作　　者：覃芳葵[1] 高绪芳[1] 鹿茸[1] 孙婧雯[1] 杜慧兰[1] 杜楠 QIN Fang-kui;GAO Xufang;LU Rong;SUN Jing-wen;DU Hui-lan;DU Nan(Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]成都市疾病预防控制中心,成都610041

出　　处：《四川大学学报（医学版）》2019年第3期362-366,共5页Journal of Sichuan University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：四川省卫计委重点研究项目(No.18ZD047)资助

摘　　要：目的分析2017年成都市大气细颗粒物(particulate matter 2.5,PM_(2.5))对呼吸系统急救人次的近期影响。方法收集成都市2017年1月1日～12月31日的PM_(2.5)每日24 h质量浓度均值、每日呼吸系统疾病急救人次数、日均气温和相对湿度,采用广义相加时间序列模型,在每日总急救人次数无明显长期趋势的基础上,控制气象因素(气温和气湿)、"星期效应"混杂因素后,分析PM_(2.5)与呼吸系统急救人次的关系。结果成都市2017年因呼吸系统疾病急救呼救共9 309人次,平均每天26人次。日均温度16.6℃,日均相对湿度81.2%,全年PM_(2.5)质量浓度均值为53.6μg/m^3。单污染物模型滞后时间效应分析发现,最强效应期为暴露当日,在最强效应期空气中PM_(2.5)质量浓度每升高10μg/m^3,居民因呼吸系统疾病急救风险增加1.26%(95%可信区间:0.56%～1.97%),且PM_(2.5)质量浓度与居民因呼吸系统疾病急救风险几乎呈正向直线关系。双污染物模型分析发现,每日臭氧质量浓度8 h滑动平均值(O_(3-8 h))能够增强PM_(2.5)质量浓度对人群急救风险的效应。结论空气PM_(2.5)污染,可能增加居民因呼吸系统疾病急救的风险。Objective To determine the association between daily particulate matter 2.5(Pm^2.5)mass and emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases.Methods Semi-parametric generalized additive model was established to determine the association between daily Pm^2.5and emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases in 2017in Chengdu,after adjustments for time trend and variations in the days of the week and weather conditions.Results In 2017,a total of 9 309emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases were recorded in Chengdu:on average 26calls a day.Over the'year,Chengdu reported a mean Pm^2.5 mass concentration of 53.6μg/m^3,an average temperature of 16.6℃,and an average relative humidity of 81.2%.The single pollutant model with lag time effect showed that a 10μg/m^3 increase in Pm^2.5 was associated with an increase of 1.26%〔95%confidence interval(CI)0.56%-1.97%〕emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases.The exposure-response was almost in a direct line.The dual pollutant model found that O38-hour sliding average(O3-8h)enhanced the effect of Pm^2.5 on emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases.Conclusion Outdoor Pm^2.5is a significant predictor of emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases in Chengdu.

关 键 词：PM2.5 急救 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程] R56[医药卫生—呼吸系统]