基于多元回归模型的房价影响因素研究  

Research on the Factors Affecting Housing Price Based on Multiple Regression Model

作　　者：李丹[1] 朱家明[2] 李薇[2] 徐亮 LI Dan;ZHU Jia-ming;LI Wei;XU Liang(School of Finance,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 23300,China;School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 23300,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233000 [2]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《辽宁工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第3期206-210,共5页Journal of Liaoning University of Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61305070);安徽省教育厅科研基金项目(2016ckjh007)

摘　　要：针对房价波动以及海南省最新出台的最严厉限购政策对房价调控效果研究,以三亚市为研究对象,通过查找相关资料选取合适的指标体系,建立房价波动的多元回归模型,并利用计量经济学知识进行模型的检验、修正,量化探析房价波动的影响因素,建立最优的房价评估回归方程。同时引入了虚拟变量,进行时间序列预测,研究出台限购政策前后的房价波动情况,利用EVIEWS、SPSS等软件求解,结果发现房价的波动主要受居民消费价格指数等因素影响较显著,且预测2018年海南省最新严厉出台的限购政策将对房价有较好的调控效果。In view of the fluctuation of house prices and the latest strictest purchase restriction policy introduced by Hainan Province, the effect of house price regulation is studied.Taking Sanya City as the research object, the corresponding index system is selected by finding relevant data to establish a multiple regression model of house price fluctuations. The model is tested and corrected according to econometrics, and the influencing factors of house price fluctuations are quantitatively analyzed to establish an optimal regression equation for house price evaluation. At the same time, dummy variables were introduced to predict time series, and the fluctuations of house prices before and after the purchase restriction policy were introduced.The software was solved by EVIEWS and SPSS. The results show that the fluctuation of house prices is mainly affected by factors such as consumer price index. It’s predicted in 2018 the latest strict purchase restriction policy in Hainan Province will bring housing prices under control.

关 键 词：房价波动 多元回归 Holt-Winters平滑拟合 EVIEWS 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]