基于系统动力学的哈尔滨市私人小汽车出行特征建模分析  

Modeling and analysis on private car travel characteristics in Harbin based on system dynamics

作　　者：宋成举[1] 薛大维[1] 张鹏[1] SONG Chengju;XUE Dawei;ZHANG Peng(College of Automotive and Transportation Engineering,Heilongjiang Institute of Technology,Harbin 150050,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江工程学院汽车与交通工程学院

出　　处：《黑龙江工程学院学报》2019年第3期1-4,13,共5页Journal of Heilongjiang Institute of Technology

基　　金：黑龙江省普通高等学校青年创新人才培养计划(UNPYSCT-2018090);哈尔滨市科技创新青年后备人才计划(2015RAQXJ039);黑龙江省省属本科高校基本科研业务费科研项目(2018CX08);黑龙江工程学院博士基金(2015BJ03)

摘　　要：私人小汽车是出行方式结构的重要组成部分,科学地规范和引导私人小汽车发展对于经济社会持续健康发展具有重要意义。从私人小汽车出行影响因素分析入手,剖析私人小汽车出行存在的因果关系链,建立动态因果关系环路,采用VENSIM建立仿真环境,结合哈尔滨私人小汽车出行数据对模型进行标定,分析哈尔滨市私人小汽车出行特征,研究表明:哈尔滨市私人小汽车平均载人数和运载总量均呈现下降趋势。Private cars are an important part of the travel structure.Scientific guiding the development of private cars is of great significance to the sustained and healthy development of the economy and society.The paper starts with the analysis of the influencing factors of private car travel,analyzes the causal relationship chain of private car travel,establishes a dynamic causal relationship loop,uses vensim to establish a simulation environment,combines Harbin private car travel data to calibrate,and analyzes on the characteristics of private car travel in Harbin.The result shows that the average number of passengers and the total amount of private cars in Harbin have shown a downward trend.

关 键 词：私人小汽车 系统动力学 出行特征 仿真 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]