基于改进生成系数法的西非外贸集装箱生成量测算  

Calculation of West African Foreign Trade Container Production Based on Improved Coefficient Method

作　　者：彭广益 陈汨梨 朱逸凡 封学军[1] Peng Guangyi;Chen Mili;Zhu Yifan;Feng Xuejun(College of Harbour,Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;CHEC Western Africa Division,Abidjan 06BP6687,Cote dlvoire)

机构地区：[1]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏南京210098 [2]中国港湾西部非洲区域公司,科特迪瓦阿比让06BP6687

出　　处：《华东交通大学学报》2019年第3期135-142,共8页Journal of East China Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41401120);江苏省社会科学基金项目(14JD014);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(26120162016B09614)

摘　　要：为对西非物流现状进行客观准确判断,且对其未来发展需求做进一步判断。文章提出利用改进的集装箱生成系数法来对西非外贸集装箱生成量进行测算,通过对世界银行、国际货币基金组织及联合国等世界相关组织对西非经济的判断总结了西非各国的经济情况,以此进行判断未来经济发展趋势。根据西非各国对外贸易的基本情况,选用集装箱作为代表货种,在对外贸总额、经济增长率、集装箱箱化率、适箱货比例以及适箱货重量系数等多因素变量进行标定的基础上,应用改进的集装箱生成系数法对西非外贸集装箱生成量进行测算,判断西非各国的物流需求。并在此基础上结合经济发展趋势对未来西非集装箱生成量进行预测,对西非区域的域内交通发展,沿海港口建设以及进一步的物流规划作参考依据。In order to objectively and accurately judge the current situation of logistics in west Africa and further judge its future development needs,due to the lack of statistical data for the large spatial scale of research and economic backwardness,it is significant to judge the construction needs of logistics infrastructure.So this paper put forward improved container generation coefficient method to measure west African foreign trade container generation.Based on west African economic judgment from the world bank,the international monetary fund and the United Nations and other related organizations in the world,it summarized the west African economic situation and forecasted the trend of the future economic development.According to the basic situation of foreign trade of west African countries,by taking the container as the representative,on the basis of the calibration of multifactor variables including the total amount of foreign trade,economic growth,the change rate of containers,the optimum proportion of cases and optimum cases as the weight coefficients,it measured the foreign trade container generation and logistics requirements in west African countries through the improved container generation coefficient method.On this basis,the paper forecasts the future container production in combination with the economic development trend,and makes reference for the regional traffic development,coastal port construction and further logistics planning in west African countries.

关 键 词：西非 外贸集装箱 生成系数法 集装箱生成量 

分 类 号：U695[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]