低碳转型政策经济效应和气候效应的实证研究  

Empirical Research on Economic and Climate Effects of Low Carbon Transition Policy

作　　者：马建平 MA Jianping

机构地区：[1]中华女子学院金融系

出　　处：《阅江学刊》2019年第3期43-56,119,120,共16页Yuejiang Academic Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“碳排放总量控制、结构调整与增长调速的相容模式及调谐机制”(16BJY056);中华女子学院配套经费项目“碳排放总量控制、结构调整与增长调速的相容模式及调谐机制”(110003250405)

摘　　要：“十二五”期间,中国低碳转型政策的气候效应明显:低碳技术减排、产业结构减排、能源结构减排分别减少14.20亿吨、8.57亿吨、4.94亿吨二氧化碳排放,共抵消74.42%的规模增排效应。低碳转型政策对宏观经济和地区经济均产生影响。从宏观经济影响来看,煤炭生产与工业生产互为Granger原因,整体低碳转型政策是两者负向Granger原因,控煤措施使工业增速年均下降约2.26个百分点。从地区经济影响来看,经济增速、能耗强度降速、低碳转型政策互为Granger原因,能耗强度加速下降对经济增速先抑制后促进,低碳转型政策抑制经济增长但对能耗强度影响较弱,低碳转型政策抑制经济增速效应在全国分布相对均衡。要持续推进低碳转型,必须统筹平衡经济增长目标与碳排放控制目标,持续加强先进技术和低碳技术的研发应用,加速可再生能源和清洁化石能源发展,加大低碳转型政策在降低能耗强度方面的影响,提高低碳政策消化能力,储备抵消消极影响的政策工具。It is found through assessment on climate effects of China's low carbon transition policy that Technology Emission Reduction, Industrial Structure Emission Reduction, Energy Structure Emission Reduction decreased emissions of 1.420 billion, 0.857 billion and 0.494 billion tons of carbon dioxide during the 12th Five-Year Plan, which offset 74.42 percent of Scale Emission Increasing Effects. It is found through assessment on national economic effects that coal production and industrial production are opposite Granger causes mutually, and low carbon transition policy were their negative Granger causes, as well as measures of coal control pulled down appropriately 2.26 percentage points of industrial growth annually. It is found through assessment on regional economic effects that economic growth, energy consumption intensity reduction and low carbon transition policy are opposite Granger causes reciprocally, and accelerated decline of energy consumption intensity imposed restrain first and then promotion on economic growth, as well as low carbon transition policy inhibited economic growth and influenced weakly on energy consumption intensity. Low carbon transition policy inhibited economic growth obviously with even distribution throughout the country.

关 键 词：低碳转型 经济效应 气候效应 能耗强度 能源结构 节能减排 低碳技术 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]