基于专家知信度的应急物流方案评价  

Evaluation of Emergency Logistics Scheme Based on Expert Knowledge and Reliability

作　　者：施梦慧 毛雪岷[1] 张正艳 SHI Menghui;MAO Xuemin;ZHANG Zhengyan(School of Management,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230000,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院

出　　处：《物流科技》2019年第6期72-78,共7页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：安徽省科技攻关计划项目“暴恐事件智能化预警与处置关键技术研究”(JZ2016AKKG0825)

摘　　要：为了对应急物流方案选择进行量化评价,构建应急物流方案选择评价指标体系,提出了一种将可拓层次分析与专家知信度相结合的评价方法。借助可拓区间数来代替具体数值建立判断矩阵,将专家评分偏差权重和专家知信度权重结合分析,构造了一个新的综合可拓判断矩阵,并使矩阵自然服从一致性条件,从而确定各级评价指标的权重系数并进行排序。最后以某景点F为例,说明了该方法的实现流程和可行性。In order to quantitatively evaluate the selection of emergency logistics schemes and build an evaluation index system for the selection of emergency logistics schemes,an evaluation method combining extension hierarchical analysis with expert knowledge and belief is proposed.By using the extension interval number to replace the specific value to establish the judgment matrix,combining the expert scoring deviation weight and the expert knowledge and belief weight,a new comprehensive extension judgment matrix is constructed,and the matrix naturally obeys the consistency condition,thus determining the weight coefficient of each evaluation index and sorting.Finally,a scenic spot F is taken as an example to illustrate the implementation process and feasibility of the method.

关 键 词：应急物流 方案选择 知信度 可拓层次分析 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]