杭州市大气污染物排放、环境空气质量双拐点——基于EKC曲线的实证研究  

Turning Points of Air Pollutant Emissions and Ambient Air Quality in Hangzhou——An Empirical Study Based on EKC Curve

作　　者：唐伟[1] 闫兰玲[1] 何平[2] 徐海岚[1] 郑思伟[1] 谷雨[1] Tang Wei;Yan Lanling;He Ping;Xu Hailan;Zheng Siwei;Gu Yu(Hangzhou Institute of Environment Sciences, Hangzhou 310014, China;Hangzhou Environmental Monitoring Centre Station, Hangzhou 310007, China)

机构地区：[1]杭州市环境保护科学研究院,浙江杭州310014 [2]杭州市环境监测中心站,浙江杭州310007

出　　处：《环境科学与管理》2019年第5期61-65,共5页Environmental Science and Management

基　　金：杭州市软科学研究项目“基于环境资源禀赋视角的杭州市产业转型升级对策研究”(20180834M37);杭州市科技引导项目“基于大数据的杭州市工业污染物排放特征分析及转型升级研究”(20171226Y05)

摘　　要：基于环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)及相关理论,选取杭州市2001年-2016年的大气污染物排放总量和环境空气质量指标分别与人均GDP数据进行拟合研究。结果表明,SO2排放量和SO2年均浓度与人均GDP之间存在明显三次曲线特征,呈现倒“U”型,年均浓度拐点稍滞后于排放量拐点;NO2年均浓度与人均GDP之间拟合度相对于NOx排放量要弱,总体上仍呈现倒“U”型,年均浓度拐点明显滞后于排放量拐点;烟粉尘排放量和PM10年均浓度与人均GDP之间呈现单调递减,略显倒“N”特征。Based on the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), this paper selects the environmental and economic data of Hangzhou City from 2001 to 2016 and builds the Kuznets model of airquality and economic growth. The results show that there was a significant cubic curve between SO 2 concentration and per capita GDP, presenting an inverted “U” shaped curve. The turning point of SO 2 concentration lags behind the turning point of SO 2 emissions. The fitting degree between NO 2 concentration and per capita GDP is weaker than that of NO x emissions, but it still presents an inverted “U” type in general, and the turning point of NO 2 concentration lags behind the turning point of NO x emissions. The total dust emissions and PM 10 concentration with per capita GDP show a monotonous decline, showing a slight negative “N” characteristic.

关 键 词：EKC 经济发展 大气污染物 空气质量 杭州市 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]