新农保对家庭养老的替代效应——基于CFPS的微观证据  

Substitution effect of new rural endowment insurance on family support for the aged——based on the microscopic evidence from CFPS

作　　者：秦昌才[1] Qin Changcai

机构地区：[1]烟台大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《东岳论丛》2019年第6期87-95,192,共10页DongYue Tribune

摘　　要：基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010和2014两期面板数据,分析了新农保政策对中国农村家庭养老模式的替代效果。基于内生性考虑的倍差法研究发现,参加新农保使得农村家庭的土地流转收入显著增加,来自子女的转移性收入显著减少;基于政策异质性考虑的分位数回归进一步发现,转移性收入越低的家庭,参保对子女养老的替代效应就越小,且参保缩小了家庭间在转移性收入方面的差距;新农保对土地养老的替代效应在低收入家庭中更加明显。Based on the panel data of CFPS of 2010 and 2014, the paper analyses the impacts of China's new rural endowment insurance on family support for the aged. With the method of difference in difference in consideration of endogenous problems, we find that the participation in new rural endowment insurance results in a significant increase in farmland transferring income and a decrease in intergenerational transferring income. Based on the quantile regression in consideration of the heterogeneity of policy, we find that the lower the family' s transferring income, the lower the substitution effect of new rural endowment insurance on family support. Participation in new rural endowment insurance narrows the gap of transferring income among different families. The substi丒 tution effect of new rural endowment insurance on land endowment is more significant in lower-income families.

关 键 词：新农保 子女养老 土地养老 倍差法 分位数回归 

分 类 号：C[社会学]