1995—2011年中国制造业全球价值链动态演进过程分析——基于Ti VA数据库的新兴市场国家比较!  

Analysis on the Dynamic Evolution Process of China's Manufacturing Global Value Chain from 1995 to 2011: Based on Ti VA Database and Comparison between Emerging Market Countries

作　　者：李正 武友德[4] 胡平平 LI Zheng;WU Youde;HU Pingping

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学中国西南对外开放与边疆安全研究中心 [2]孟加拉湾地区研究中心 [3]中国西南地缘环境与边疆发展协同创新中心 [4]云南师范大学缅甸研究中心 [5]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2019年第5期69-84,共16页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"流关联网络视角下近域国家地缘经济共生机理与优化策略"(41561029);国家社会科学基金重大项目"中缅泰老‘黄金四角’跨流域合作与共生治理体系研究"(16ZDA041);云南省博士后科学研究基金项目"云南跨境经济合作的空间效应比较与提升策略"(2018)

摘　　要：基于OECD-WTO联合发布的Ti VA统计数据,利用全球价值链参与度、关联度与产业演进系数等量化方法,对1995—2011年中国制造业在全球价值链中的演进过程与趋势特征开展了实证检验,并在与其他新兴市场国家的比较中明晰所处位置与类型。研究结果表明:中国及其他新兴市场国家制造业全球价值链参与表现出明显的趋同性,参与度较高且为上升、收敛态势,中国制造业参与的进度更大、程度更深、水平更高;经历了振荡发展、加速融入、平稳调整等三个发展阶段,表现为"倒S形"发展过程,并在前向、后向两个方向上以渐趋平衡的关联度嵌入全球产业链,更具网络的稳固性与根植性;受此影响,中国及新兴市场国家的制造业内部随之出现不同程度的产业调适;中国的产业演进突出表现在由低技术产业向高技术产业演进,低技术产业仍然偏高,中高技术产业发展不足,属于跨梯度演进模式。这一演进特征与中国自身所处发展阶段与制造业总体水平紧密相关,也受到中国全面推进对外开放、加大工业化步伐、调整产业结构与加入WTO等政策因素的影响。Referring to the GVC analysis framework based on global value chain and national accounts accounting system proposed by Koopman et al,the paper examined and reinterpreted the connotation and its application value of GVC correlation, and established the industrial evolution co-efficient,which was used to describe the manufacturing industrial changes caused by global value chain participation process,thus forming a method system suitable for the dynamic evolution analysis of global value chains. Based on the Ti VA statistical data jointly published by OECD-WTO,by applying a quantitative analysis method consisting of GVC participation index,correlation index and industrial evolution co-efficient,the paper made an empirical analysis of the evolution,trends and characteristics of China’ s manufacturing industry in the global value chain participation in the period of 1995-2011,and determined its position and type in comparison with other emerging market countries. The research shows that the global value chains participation in China and other emerging market countries has significant convergence,and the GVC participation is relatively high and rising and converging. The GVC participation of China’ s manufacturing is more progressive,deeper and higher. It has undergone three stages of development: oscillation development,accelerated integration and smooth adjustment, which is characterized by an "invert S-shaped " development processs. China’ s manufacturing is embedded in the global industrial chain with a gradually balanced GVC Correlation in both forward and backward directions,and thus making the industrial network more stable and embedded. Under its influences,there comes to be varied degrees of industrial adjustment within China ’ s manufacturing and emerging market countries. China’ s manufacturing has evolved obviously from a low-tech industry to a high-tech one,but the proportion of low-tech industry is still higher,meanwhile the medium-and high-tech industries are still under-developed. It is close

关 键 词：GVC 参与度 关联度 产业演进系数 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易]