基于SIS传染模型的股市投资者行为传染机制研究  

Research on Behavior Infection Mechanism of Stock Market Investors Based on SIS Contagion Model

作　　者：吴宇宁 禹顺强 谢承蓉 杜明娟 Wu Yuning;Yu Shunqiang;Xie Chengrong;Du Mingjuan(School of Finance,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211815,China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学金融学院

出　　处：《湖北工程学院学报》2019年第3期53-59,共7页Journal of Hubei Engineering University

摘　　要：为了减少股市投资过程中存在的羊群行为,研究了股市中投资者的行为传染过程。借鉴了SIS传染病模型、结合动力学理论,运用二维系统分叉定理对模型平衡点进行了稳定性分析,并进行了模拟仿真分析。得出以下结论:基本再生数对投资者行为传染具有决定性作用,并且当基本再生数处于指定范围时,其值与传染程度成正比关系;提出了一些建议,包括建立完善的信息披露制度和奖惩制度,减少信息不对称,以及对个人投资者进行教育,提高其投资和风险把控能力等。In order to reduce the herd behavior in the stock market investment, the behavioral infection process of investors in the stock market was studied. Based on the SIS infectious disease model and the dynamics theory, the two-dimensional system bifurcation theorem was used to make an analysis of the stability of the model equilibrium point and simulation analysis was also carried out. Thus the following conclusions could be drawn that the basic regeneration number plays a decisive role in investor behavioral infection, and when the basic regeneration number is within the specified range, its value is proportional to the degree of infection. Suggestions are proposed to establish a sound information disclosure system and reward and punishment system, reduce information asymmetry, as well as to provide education for individual investors so as to improve their investment and risk control capabilities.

关 键 词：SIS模型 股市投资 行为传染 基本再生数 Jury条件 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]