基于多重验证的船舶水动力虚拟试验置信度评估方法（英文）  

A Multiple Validation Based Methodology of Confidence Level Assessment for Virtual Test of Ship Hydrodynamics

作　　者：吴乘胜[1] 赵峰[1] 沈泓萃[1] WU Cheng-sheng;ZHAO Feng;SHEN Hong-cui(China Ship Scientific Research Center,Wuxi 214082,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船舶科学研究中心

出　　处：《船舶力学》2019年第6期643-659,共17页Journal of Ship Mechanics

摘　　要：船舶水动力学领域中,数值水池虚拟试验结果的可信度是制约其应用与发展的关键因素之一。目前常用的CFD不确定度分析,经实践证明不完全适用于虚拟试验置信度评估,因而需要建立一种新的置信度评估方法,以确保针对“属性细分”后的一类问题,虚拟试验结果可信且达到工程实用精度要求。为此,文中提出了一种新的船舶水动力数值水池试验置信度评估方法,该方法的核心是“不确定度分析、最优解确认、大子样验证”三重验证流程,其中:不确定度分析基于正交试验设计、方差分析和统计推断理论;最优解确认基于正交试验设计的效应分析方法和残差最小原理;大子样验证则基于大量数值水池试验结果和相应模型试验数据的对比与统计分析。文中以船模阻力虚拟试验为例开展了实践,证明了该置信度评估方法的合理性和有效性。A multiple validation based methodology of confidence level assessment for virtual test of ship model hydrodynamics is presented.The methodology is based on the procedure of uncertainty analysis,validation of optimal solution,validation by big sample data,in which the uncertainty analysis is based on orthogonal design and variance analysis methods and statistic inference theory,the validation of optimal solution is based on effect analysis in orthogonal design and principle of minimum deviation;the virtual test method is validated by statistical analysis of comparison with a large numbers of experimental data.The procedure is applied to practice with virtual test of ship model resistance,and the result shows that the methodology of confidence level assessment is reasonable and effective.

关 键 词：置信度评估 多重验证 虚拟试验 船舶水动力 

分 类 号：U661.3[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]