基于改进C-Logit模型的三峡翻坝运输分担率研究  

Research on the Split Ratio of Three Gorges Hub Crossing-dam Transportation Based on Improved C-Logit Model

作　　者：亓强强 杨立娟 张煜[1] QI Qiangqiang;YANG Lijuan;ZHANG Yu(Wuhan University of Technology, School of Logistics Engineering, Wuhan 430063, China;Guilin University of Aerospace Technology, Guilin 541004,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学物流工程学院,武汉430063 [2]桂林航天工业学院,桂林541004

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2019年第3期393-397,403,共6页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71874132);武汉理工大学研究生优秀学位论文培育项目(2018-YS-072)资助

摘　　要：三峡枢纽船舶积压日益严重,翻坝是解决三峡枢纽船舶积压的有效策略.结合三峡枢纽翻坝运输路径特点,选取能改善传统Logit模型IIA和IID弊端的改进C-Logit模型为基础模型,引入考虑时间成本和翻坝补贴在内的广义货运费用概念,构建三峡翻坝运输分担率模型.在此模型基础上研究并分析重庆至上海集装箱和商品车翻坝运输分担率和其翻坝补贴之间的量化关系.分析表明,翻坝补贴措施能有效地增加翻坝运输分担率,在各应急等级下,每提供100元/TEU或100元/车的翻坝补贴就能实现集装箱约6.2%或商品车约21.2%的转移率.The backlog of ships in Three Gorges hub is becoming more and more serious. Crossing-dam transportation is an effective strategy to solve the backlog of ships in the Three Gorges hub. Based on the characteristics of the crossing-dam transportation route in Three Gorges hub, the improved C-Logit model, which can improve the traditional Logit model's IIA and IID malpractice, was selected as the basic model. This paper introduced the concept of generalized freight cost including time cost and crossing-dam subsidy, and constructed the crossing-dam transportation split ratio model in Three Gorges hub. Based on this model, the quantitative relationship between the split ratio of Chongqing-Shanghai container and commodity vehicle crossing-dam transportation and its subsidy was studied and analyzed. The analysis shows that the crossing-dam subsidy can effectively increase the split ratio of crossing-dam transportation. Under each emergency level, the lockage transfer rate of about 6.2% of containers or 21.2% of commodity vehicles can be achieved with the subsidy of 100 yuan/TEU or 100 yuan/vehicle.

关 键 词：综合交通运输 翻坝运输分担率 改进C-Logit模型 三峡枢纽 翻坝补贴 广义货运费用 

分 类 号：U116.5[交通运输工程]