综合客运交通系统演化建模与求解  

Evolution Modeling and Solution of the Integrated Passenger Transportation System

作　　者：宋成举[1] 张亚平[2] SONG Chengju;ZHANG Yaping(School of Automotive and Transportation Engineering,Heilongjiang Institute of Technology,Harbin 150050,Heilongjiang,P.R.China;School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150090,Heilongjiang,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江工程学院汽车与交通工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150050 [2]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第7期102-106,113,共6页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：黑龙江省青年科学基金项目(QC2014C060);黑龙江省普通高等学校青年创新人才培养计划项目(UNPYSCT-2018090);黑龙江省省属本科高校基本科研业务费科研项目(2018CX08);哈尔滨市科技创新青年后备人才计划项目(2015RAQXJ039);黑龙江工程学院博士基金项目(2015BJ03)

摘　　要：综合客运交通系统在系统内外部因素的共同作用下而不断演化,但对于各种运输方式之间的作用机制及整个系统的演化趋势认识尚不明确。通过分析综合客运交通系统的自组织特性,选择客运周转量作为系统变量,采用流体运动方程描述系统演化进程,借鉴Logistic模型描述综合客运交通系统演化过程,引入系统随机变量,将演化方程组拆分成Logistic方程部分和随机部分,分别采用矩阵最小二乘法和K阶Fourier级数拟合求解,结合哈尔滨实际数据验证模型有效性。结果表明:综合客运交通系统呈现明显的自组织特性,采用分部拟合的方法能够较好的描述综合客运交通系统的演化进程,预测精度符合要求。The integrated passenger transport system is evolving under the combined action of internal and external factors,but it is not clear about the mechanism of various modes of transport and the evolution trend of the whole system.By analyzing the self-organizing characteristics of the integrated passenger transport system,the passenger turnover was taken as the system variable,and the fluid motion equation was used to describe the system evolution process.Logistic model was used to describe the evolution process of the integrated passenger transport system.By introducing system random variables,the evolutionary equations were divided into two parts: Logistic equations part and the stochastic part.Matrices least squares method and K -order Fourier series fitting method were used to solve the evolutionary equations respectively.Combined with the actual data in Harbin,the validity of the proposed model was verified.The results show that the integrated passenger transport system presents obvious self-organizing characteristics.The evolution process of the integrated passenger transport system can be better described by the method of partial fitting,and the prediction accuracy meets the requirements.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 演化建模 矩阵最小二乘法 FOURIER级数 客运周转量 

分 类 号：U116.1[交通运输工程]