不同空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价模型对比研究  

Model comparison of mountain torrent disaster risk assessment in different spatial scale

作　　者：田丰 张军[2] 冉有华 刘金鹏[4] 周翼 TIAN Feng;ZHANG Jun;RAN You-hua;LIU Jin-peng;ZHOU Yi(Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 , China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China;Geological Natural DisasterPrevention Research Institute, Gansu Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [2]甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院,甘肃兰州730070 [3]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [4]甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2019年第3期559-569,共11页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：甘肃省科学院与中国科学院合作项目“河西走廊经济带山洪地质灾害风险评价研究”;国家自然科学基金(41161066);甘肃省自然科学基金(1506RJZA003,1606RJZA076);甘肃省高校基本科研费(041013)

摘　　要：以山洪灾害风险评价的多准则决策模型、最大熵模型、信息量模型三种常见模型为研究对象,选取河西走廊和张掖市为地理区划(大中)、市域(小)空间尺度研究区,构建山洪灾害风险评价指标体系,分别完成基于三种模型的两种空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价制图,基于甘肃省地质灾害调查与区划报告数据从模型验证、空间自相关、精度对比和尺度效应等角度对比分析三个模型应用于不同空间尺度的适应性,并给出优选模型。结果表明:最大熵模型是河西走廊(地理区划)空间尺度上山洪灾害风险评价的优选模型;多准则决策模型不适用于张掖市(市域)空间尺度评价,且三个模型运行结果均没有河西走廊(地理区划)空间尺度上表现良好;三个模型的尺度效应明显,在地理区划空间尺度上应用较良好,缩小至市域空间尺度上模拟结果误差增大;不同空间尺度上,最大熵模型均优于多准则决策模型和信息量模型,适用于地理区划(大中)、市域(小)空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价。This paper selected Hexi Corridor and Zhangye District,Gansu Province,China as the study zones with different spatial scale of geography division(large and medium scale,e.g.Hexi Corridor) and region(small scale,e.g.Zhangye District).Three popular models in assessing mountain torrent disaster including multi-criterion model,MaxEnt model and information model were set as the study object.Based on the established risk assessment index system about mountain torrent disaster,the map of risk assessment on mountain torrent disaster for Hexi Corridor and Zhangye District was accomplished using the three models respectively.The model’s suitability was analyzed from the perspectives of the model validation,spatial autocorrelation,the precision comparison and the scale effect based on the statistics data about the geological disasters investigation and divisional reports in Gansu Province,and the preferred model was figured out.The result showed that MaxEnt model was the optimal model for risk assessment about mountain torrent disaster at the spatial scale of geography division.The multi-criterion model wasn’t suitable at the spatial scale of region,and the results from three models for Zhangye District were not as good as those for Hexi Corridor.The scale effect of the three models was extremely obvious,and the application effect at the spatial scale of Hexi Corridor was better than that at the spatial scale of Zhangye District.The MaxEnt model was superior to the multi-criterion decision model and the information model regardless of the spatial scale,and can be used to support the monitoring,pre-warning and protection engineering projects about mountain torrent disaster in Hexi Corridor.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 风险 空间尺度 模型适应性 模型对比 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]